COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
FUNDAMENTALS:
- SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (~42% of the world’s total) and Ghana (~11.6% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (~11.4%), Ecuador (~6,7%), and Brazil (~5.2%).
- DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (~35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (~21%), Africa (~22%), and the Americas – North and South (~18%).
EVENTS:
- EVENT (EXPECTED: DECEMBER 12-15): THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) COCOA MARKET REPORT (NOVEMBER). The monthly report shows the market’s supply and demand outlook as well as the general market balance data. It could include data for the most recent start of the harvest season in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world.
NEWS:
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 31): COCOA TO BE INCLUDED IN THE BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX (BCOM) STARTING JANUARY 2026. According to Barchart.com, Cocoa will be included in the index for the first time in 2 decades, beginning in January 2026. According to estimates by Citigroup Inc., the index may lure as much as $2 billion in investment activity in the first days of January, which is equivalent to nearly 40% of open interest. The index will become active in January 2026.
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 28): INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANISATION QUARTERLY BULLETIN OF COCOA STATISTICS. The ICCO quarterly report cut its global surplus estimate to 49,000 tons from a previous estimate of 142,000 tons and lowered its global production estimate to 4.69 million tons from a prior estimate of 4.84 million tons.
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 16) INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANISATION MONTHLY COCOA REPORT. Monthly cocoa arrivals at the Côte d’Ivoire ports were estimated at 411,000 tons, representing a decline of 9,7% year-on-year.
TECHNICAL REVIEW
- COCOA PRICES HAVE RECENTLY TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2024 ($4,914). The price, however, has recovered by around 22% since then, hitting levels near $6,000.
- SUPPORT AREA: $6,000. Since early October 2025, after testing the area below $6,000, Cocoa prices tendered to return above $6,000, indicating a possible support area.
- COCOA TRADING ABOVE MOVING AVERAGES: Cocoa prices have broken above the 20- and 50-Day moving averages, pointing to a potential reversal of the downward trend, with cocoa prices recovering and potentially continuing to recover.
GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2025 - DECEMBER 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
COCOA (#COCOA) December 10, 2025.
Current Price: 5,955
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
8,000 |
|
|
7,500 |
|
|
7,000 |
|
|
5,200 |
|
|
5,100 |
|
|
5,000 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
20,450 |
15,450 |
10,450 |
-7,550 |
-8,550 |
-9,550 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
17,577 |
13,279 |
8,982 |
-6,489 |
-7,349 |
-8,208 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
15,364 |
11,608 |
7,851 |
-5,672 |
-6,424 |
-7,175 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
28,335 |
21,407 |
14,479 |
-10,461 |
-11,847 |
-13,232 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 10/12/2025
There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.