Crude Oil

Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

NEWS:

• RUSSIA: RUSSIA’S SEABORNE OIL SHIPMENTENTS DOWN AT THE LOWEST SINCE JANUARY AS they continued cutting exports, but also due to tensions in the Black Sea. Average nationwide shipments to 2.84 million barrels a day, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That's about 1.05 million barrels a day below the peak in mid-May. Russia’s seaborne crude flows fell to their lowest since January after an unexplained slowdown at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while the nation pledges to restrict its oil exports.
• CHINA: APPARENT OIL DEMAND UP 21.2% TO 14.74 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN JULY (from July 2022). January- July apparent oil demand is UP 13.16% to 14.42 million barrels a day from the same period last year.
• SAUDI ARABIA: SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDS 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY PRODUCTION CUT INTO AUGUST AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE SAME INTO SEPTEMBER. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, said it would extend its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to August, while Russia and Algeria volunteered to lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, respectively. According to a Bloomberg survey, Saudi Arabia is expected to extend the cuts into September.

OIL MARKETS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO DEFICIT:

• OPEC+ TO BE CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.66 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023 AFTER SAUDI ARABIA PLEDGED AN ADDITIONAL 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF PRODUCTION CUTS IN JULY 2023. Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts will be extended until the end of 2024.
• OPEC OIL PRODUCTION AT THE LOWEST since 2020.
• US DRIVING SEASON USUALLY STARTS AT THE END OF MAY UNTIL EARLY SEPTEMBER. When the driving season in the US, the largest petroleum consumer in the world, gets underway analysts see higher consumption and therefore higher demand.

• CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.
• DEFICIT CREATION: FALLING SUPPLY AMID RISING DEMAND COULD CREATE A DEFICIT. The above analyzed points show that demand could be expected to outpace supply, creating a hole that is known as deficit. According to Goldman Sachs, that deficit could be as much as 1.8 million barrels a day in the second half of the year, which is down from a 600,000 barrels a day surplus previously.

ANALYST OPINION:

• JPMorgan forecasts $86 in 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts $86 by the end of the year. UBS forecasts $95 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $90 a barrel. Barclays predicts $87 by the end of the year. Standard Chartered forecasts $93.

Crude Oil, August 23, 2023
Current Price:78.30

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:55 (GMT+1) 23/08/2023
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• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
• Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail