Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
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WEEK SEPTEMBER 4 TO SEPTEMBER 10: RUSSIA TO RELEASE DETAILS ON NEXT EXPORTS AND PRODUCTION CUT STEPS. The markets believe that Russia, similar to Saudi Arabia, may announce an extension of their production and export cuts next week.
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WEEK SEPTEMBER 4 TO SEPTEMBER 10: SAUDI ARABIA EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THAT IT IS EXTENDING ITS CRUDE OIL OUTPUT CUT OF 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, extended earlier its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to September, which cuts originally started in July this year.
OIL MARKETS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO DEFICIT:
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OPEC+ TO BE CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.66 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023 AFTER SAUDI ARABIA PLEDGED AN ADDITIONAL 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF PRODUCTION CUTS IN JULY 2023. Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts will be extended until the end of 2024.
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OPEC OIL PRODUCTION AT THE LOWEST since 2020.
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U.S. DRIVING SEASON USUALLY STARTS AT THE END OF MAY AND LASTS UNTIL EARLY SEPTEMBER. When the driving season in the US, the largest petroleum consumer in the world, gets underway analysts see higher consumption and therefore higher demand.
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CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.
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DEFICIT CREATION: FALLING SUPPLY AMID RISING DEMAND COULD CREATE A DEFICIT. The above analyzed points show that demand could be expected to outpace supply, creating a hole that is known as deficit. According to Goldman Sachs, that deficit could be as much as 1.8 million barrels a day in the second half of the year, which is down from a 600,000 barrels a day surplus previously.
ANALYST OPINION:
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JPMorgan forecasts $86 in 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts $86 by the end of the year. UBS forecasts $95 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $90 a barrel. Barclays predicts $84 by the end of the year. Standard Chartered forecasts $93.
Crude Oil, September 1, 2023
Current Price: 83.50
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
95.00 |
|
|
90.00 |
|
|
87.50 |
|
|
79.50 |
|
|
78.00 |
|
|
77.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
11,500 |
6,500 |
4,000 |
-4,000 |
-5,500 |
-6,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
10,599 |
5,991 |
3,687 |
-3,687 |
-5,069 |
-5,991 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
9,075 |
5,129 |
3,156 |
-3,156 |
-4,340 |
-5,129 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
15,537 |
8,782 |
5,404 |
-5,404 |
-7,431 |
-8,782 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 01/09/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail