EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND: Since April 2025, EUR/USD has been moving in a steady rising trend, supported by the blue trendline that slopes higher. The pair is currently trading close to this line, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact despite some recent sideways movement.
- KEY MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORTS: The 150-day moving average (red) is trending higher and remains below the current price. This alignment with the trendline confirms that the broader trend is still firm. As long as the currency pair stays above both supports, the overall outlook remains positive with potential for further increases. However, it could also decline.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.20 by end-2025 and 1.22 in early 2026. UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026, Bank of America forecasts 1.20 by year-end 2025 and 1.25 during 2026, while Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
GRAPH (Daily): April 2025– October 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USA: GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENTERED ITS 21st DAY (October 21, 2025)
- BREAKING (WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 05:00 AM GMT+1): US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BEGAN WITH NO DEAL IN SIGHT. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents made no progress in ending the government shutdown. Without passage of funding legislation, parts of the government have remained closed since Wednesday (October 1).
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER). Despite the ongoing US government shutdown, latest reports have said that US inflation data could still be released, with the office workers expected to work harder to get the data out. In August, US inflation rose to 2.90%, up from July’s 2.70%. This would be the last inflation report before the Fed's interest rate decision on October 29.
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FED INTEREST RATE DECISION. Interest rates are expected to be further cut to 4.00%. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rate to 4.25% from 4.50% in September, its first interest rate cut since December 2024. The Federal Reserve policymakers said they expect to see 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025, to slash current rates to 3.75%. A softer dollar would, in turn, likely support a higher EUR/USD currency pair. However, the opposite scenario is also possible.
- THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30 AT 14:15 GMT+1: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The European Central Bank (ECB) started cutting its benchmark rate in June 2024. Since then, the ECB benchmark rate has been pushed down from 4.5% to 2.15% in June 2025. Ever since the June 2025 meeting, the ECB has not changed its interest rates. Analysts expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in October as well, which could provide support to the EUR against the US Dollar.
EURUSD, October 21, 2025.
Current Price: 1.1600
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
1.2000 |
|
1.1850 |
|
1.1730 |
|
1.1480 |
|
1.1440 |
|
1.1400 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
EUR/USD |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
4,000 |
2,500 |
1,300 |
-1,200 |
-1,600 |
-2,000 |
Profit or loss in €² |
3,446 |
2,154 |
1,120 |
-1,034 |
-1,378 |
-1,723 |
Profit or loss in £² |
2,991 |
1,870 |
972 |
-897 |
-1,196 |
-1,496 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
5,621 |
3,513 |
1,827 |
-1,686 |
-2,248 |
-2,811 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:30 (GMT+1) 21/10/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit