Gasoline weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
SANCTIONS WAR:
- OPEC, OPEC+ MEETING: JUNE 3-4. SAUDI ARABIA WILL CUT ITS OIL PRODUCTION FURTHER BY 1 MILLION BARREL A DAY STARTING. Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years. OPEC+ has in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts were valid until the end of 2023 and on Sunday OPEC+, in a broader deal on output policy agreed after seven hours of talks, said it would extend them until the end of 2024.
- EU BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCT (GASOLINE, DIESEL, NAPHTHA) IN PLACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5, 2023. The EU has prohibited the imports of Russian gasoline, diesel and other products used in Europe. Additionally, the G7 has implemented a $100 price cap on Diesel and a $45 cap on fuel oils. Since the ban was implemented, Gasoline prices are up about 12.64%.
CHINA REOPENING THEIR ECONOMY AFTER MONTHS OF CLOSURE:
- CHINA POSTS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED ECONOMIC DATA, WITH INVESTMENT BANKS UPGRADING THEIR ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS ON CHINA: China reported Q1 economic data at 4.5% vs 4.0% expected, indicating that the economy is returning to strong growth. Investment Bank JP Morgan upgraded their Chinese GDP outlook from 6.0% to 6.4%. Citibank upgraded their outlook on the Chinese economy from 5.7% to 6.1%. Strong economic outlooks in China indicate strong demand for energy commodities, such as gasoline.
- According to Bloomberg, China April oil demand hit a new all-time high (annually) to 16.00 million barrels a day. Domestic demand for diesel was up 7.1% from March numbers, while Refiners in China have been increasing production to respond to better-than-expected gasoline and jet fuel demand, with more cars running on streets and more people traveling on planes.
USA
- EVENT: US DRIVING SEASON KICKS OFF, WITH SOME ANALYSTS EXPECTING GASOLINE PRICES TO HIT $3: US driving season has kicked off in the United States, with demand for gasoline around 2.5% higher year-on-year. Strong demand is expected to continue throughout, which could push gasoline prices higher.
- EUROPEAN GASOLINE EXPORTS TO THE U.S. SET TO DECLINE 100,000 BARRELS A DAY, WHILE US GASOLINE STOCK PILES SIT AT NINE-YEAR LOWS: According to reports, the EU is set to decrease gasoline exports to the USA by 100,000 barrels a day, while US Gasoline stock piles sitting at nine-year lows.
PRICE ACTION:
- US GASOLINE HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 53% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF 4.3216 (June, 2022). The price had fallen to $2.02 (December 2022), its lowest since December 2021. Gasoline was last trading around $2.5200, which could imply an upside of 71.49% to its recent all time high of 4.3216. The price, however, could decline further.
Gasoline, June 5, 2023
Current Price:2.5200
|
Gasoline |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3.0000 |
|
|
2.8600 |
|
|
2.7000 |
|
|
2.3500 |
|
|
2.3000 |
|
|
2.2800 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GASOLINE |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
48,000.00 |
34,000.00 |
18,000.00 |
-17,000.00 |
-22,000.00 |
-24,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
44,889.18 |
31,796.50 |
16,833.44 |
-15,898.25 |
-20,574.21 |
-22,444.59 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
38,747.17 |
27,445.92 |
14,530.19 |
-13,722.96 |
-17,759.12 |
-19,373.59 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
64,538.16 |
45,714.53 |
24,201.81 |
-22,857.27 |
-29,579.99 |
-32,269.08 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:30 (GMT+1) 05/06/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail