Gasoline weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
NEWS ON PETROLEIUM MARKETS:
- RUSSIA: RUSSIA’S SEABORNE OIL SHIPMENTENTS DOWN AT THE LOWEST SINCE JANUARY AS they continued cutting exports, but also due to tensions in the Black Sea. Average nationwide shipments to 2.84 million barrels a day, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed. That's about 1.05 million barrels a day below the peak in mid-May. Russia’s seaborne crude flows fell to their lowest since January after an unexplained slowdown at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, while the nation pledges to restrict its oil exports.
- CHINA: APPARENT OIL DEMAND WAS UP 21.2% TO 14.74 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN JULY (from July 2022). January- July apparent oil demand is UP 13.16% to 14.42 million barrels a day from the same period last year. This could be a sign of higher Gasoline consumption ahead as Gasoline gets produced from oil itself.
- SAUDI ARABIA: SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDS 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY PRODUCTION CUT INTO AUGUST AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THE SAME INTO SEPTEMBER. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, said it would extend its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to August, while Russia and Algeria volunteered to lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, respectively. According to a Bloomberg survey, Saudi Arabia is expected to extend the cuts into September.
USA
- US ENDINGS STOCKS OF TOTAL GASOLINE AT THE LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2022. Falling inventories point to lower supply capacity going forward, which could have a positive impact on Gasoline price.
- GASOLINE SUPPLIES NOW 3.3% LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR, AND 7.2% BELOW THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE, WITH HURRICANE SEASON SET TO PEAK IN LATE AUGUST, CAUSING POTENTIAL SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Gasoline supplies in the U.S remain tight, and could tighten as hurricane in the Atlantic Basin could cause disruptions which could force further gasoline drawdowns on already tight supply.
- EVENT: US DRIVING SEASON WITH SOME ANALYSTS EXPECTING GASOLINE PRICES TO HIT $3: US driving season has kicked off in the United States, with demand for gasoline around 2.5% higher year-on-year. Strong demand is expected to continue throughout, which could push gasoline prices higher.
PRICE ACTION:
- US GASOLINE HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 53% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF 4.3216 (June, 2022). Gasoline was last trading around $2.6070, which could imply an upside of around 65% to its recent all time high of 4.3216. The price, however, could decline further.
- GASOLINE TRADES AT A 7- WEEK LOW: Gasoline has traded at the lowest since early July of 2023.
Gasoline, August 28, 2023
Current Price: 2.607
|
Gasoline |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
2.980 |
|
|
2.860 |
|
|
2.730 |
|
|
2.490 |
|
|
2.440 |
|
|
2.400 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GASOLINE |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
37,300 |
25,300 |
12,300 |
-11,700 |
-16,700 |
-20,700 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
34,501 |
23,402 |
11,377 |
-10,822 |
-15,447 |
-19,147 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
29,660 |
20,118 |
9,781 |
-9,304 |
-13,279 |
-16,460 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
50,728 |
34,408 |
16,728 |
-15,912 |
-22,712 |
-28,152 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 28/08/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail