Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENT
- US Inflation (Wednesday, June 12th at 13:30 GMT+1) The United States will report its CPI for May. April CPI came in at 3.4%, Year-over-Year, well below its peak of 9.1% peak in 2022. Inflation continues to trend lower, with levels approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The lower inflation should be positive for the silver, as it could indicate to the Federal Reserve that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates.
- US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, June 12th at 19:00 GMT+1): The Federal Reserve Bank will meet on June 12th to set the Fed Funds rate target. According to the most recent estimates, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the current level of 5.50%. However, with inflation falling in April, the Federal reserve may reconsider its current rate policy, and could look to implement cuts sooner, which could drive silver prices higher.
- WESTERN CENTRAL BANKS BEGIN CUTTING INTEREST RATES, WITH THE BANK OF CANADA AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK CUTTING RATES 0.25%: Both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have begun cutting interest rates, with the European central bank cutting rates for the first time since March 2016. Markets now expect that this will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin its own rate cutting cycle. Interest rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar and could catalyze a move higher in silver.
OTHER ANALYSIS:
- SILVER DEMAND: The United States remains the most important market with 22% of global demand for silver, while China represents 15% of global demand for silver (Source: Bloomberg). China's economy could potentially grow by about 5%. The US imposed 50% tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells, among the biggest industries for silver in an industrial end, to pressure output in panels throughout key factories in Asia with corporate bases in China. Still, strong demand in the domestic Chinese markets prevented a further drop, underscored by the connection of the world’s largest solar farm in northwestern Xinjiang.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- The Silver Institute forecasts global silver demand to hit 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, the second-highest level ever recorded. The Institute believes Gold could rise initially, followed by a rapid surge in silver prices. The report asserts that silver consistently outperforms, albeit belatedly. The Silver Institute believes that silver could potentially reach $50, but only after gold surpasses $2,200, which it already has. Therefore, a Silver wave could be possible relatively soon. Although the price could go down.
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $29.60 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 68%. However, the price could decline.
Silver, June 10, 2024
Current Price: 29.60
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
50.00 |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
31.40 |
|
|
28.10 |
|
|
27.80 |
|
|
27.50 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
204,000.00 |
104,000.00 |
18,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
-18,000.00 |
-21,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
189,878.19 |
96,800.65 |
16,753.96 |
-13,961.63 |
-16,753.96 |
-19,546.28 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
160,657.75 |
81,903.95 |
14,175.68 |
-11,813.07 |
-14,175.68 |
-16,538.30 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
281,092.62 |
143,302.12 |
24,802.29 |
-20,668.58 |
-24,802.29 |
-28,936.01 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:10 (GMT) 10/06/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail