USD/CAD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONG-TERM CHANNEL: 1.3900 - 1.3200. According to the daily graph below, since July 2022, USD/CAD has predominantly traded within the channel between 1.3900 and 1.3200.
- RESISTANCE AREA: ABOVE 1.3900. According to the daily chart below, the USD/CAD pair would find strong resistance at levels above 1.3900, which historically has shown a pullback to levels below 1.3900, back into the channel defined between 1.3900 and 1.3200.
GRAPH (Daily): July 2022 – December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, AT 13:30 GMT: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected reading could prove negative for the USDCAD currency pair because it will point to more interest rate cuts by the FED, creating negative pressure on the US dollar. This data measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The data for the previous week is 216.000.
- FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, AT 13:30 GMT: CANADA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER). A strong Canadian labor market (higher than expected employment change and lower than expected unemployment rate) will be supportive for the Canadian dollar. Employment change data for last month stood at 66.600, which was higher than the month before (60.400).
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- NEXT MEETING: DECEMBER 10 AT 19:00 GMT. The US Federal Reserve is expected to finish the year 2025 by cutting the rates to 3.75% on December 10.
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 29): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.00% FROM 4.25%. The Fed cut rates again in October after the one earlier in September. In total, this year, rates have fallen from 4.50% to the current 4.00%.
- FED CHAIR JEROME POWEL’S TERM ENDS IN MAY 2026, AND THE US PRESIDENT WILL MOST LIKELY NAME A NEW SUCCESSOR IN EARLY 2026. The US administration has already announced the 5 candidates that could replace Mr. Powel. All of the candidates support a policy of low interest rates, creating the conditions that the interest rate cut cycle will continue in 2026, potentially further pushing the US dollar downward.
BANK OF CANADA
- NEXT MEETING: DECEMBER 10 AT 14:45 GMT. The Bank of Canada is expected to finish the year 2025 by keeping the interest rates unchanged at the level of 2.25% on December 10, potentially creating positive pressure for the Canadian dollar.
USD/CAD December 04, 2025.
Current Price: 1.3970
|
USD/CAD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.4200 |
|
|
1.4160 |
|
|
1.4120 |
|
|
1.3800 |
|
|
1.3600 |
|
|
1.3400 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
USD/CAD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,647 |
-1,361 |
-1,074 |
1,218 |
2,650 |
4,083 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,411 |
-1,166 |
-920 |
1,043 |
2,270 |
3,497 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,235 |
-1,020 |
-805 |
913 |
1,987 |
3,061 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,300 |
-1,900 |
-1,500 |
1,700 |
3,700 |
5,700 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:15 (GMT+1) 04/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.