USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
CENTRAL BANKS' INTEREST RATE DECISIONS: US FEDERAL RESERVE
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10 AT 19:00 GMT: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION. The decision will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (19:30 GMT). The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.00%, and according to market expectations, it is expected to be cut to 3.75% on December 10, 2025. The Federal Reserve faces growing pressure to ease policy as the U.S. labor market shows clear signs of weakness. This could put negative pressure on the US dollar.
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE NEW FED CHAIR BEFORE CHRISTMAS (DECEMBER 25). According to CNBC, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump is expected to announce the next Fed chair before Christmas (December 25). Kevin Hassett, who is close to Trump and supportive of lower interest rates, is seen by Bloomberg as the front-runner. This could put additional negative pressure on the US dollar.
CENTRAL BANKS' INTEREST RATE DECISIONS: BANK OF JAPAN
- FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19 AT 03:00 GMT: BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST (BOJ) RATE DECISION. The Bank of Japan’s base rate is currently 0.50%, and markets expect the BOJ to raise rates by 0.25% at this meeting. Investors will be watching closely, as a hike would support the yen and could add further downside pressure on USD/JPY. BOJ governor Ueda suggested that the central bank could raise interest rates later this month. According to Reuters, Ueda sounded more confident about Japan’s outlook, saying easing tariff concerns are helping conditions fall into place for another rate increase.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16 AT 13:30 GMT: NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER). A weaker than expected NFP reading would point to a softer U.S. labor market, increasing expectations for additional Fed rate cuts. The U.S. unemployment rate recently went up to 4.4%. Another higher unemployment rate than expected would confirm further cooling in the U.S. economy and strengthen the case for more Fed easing, adding further downside pressure on the US dollar.
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER). A softer CPI reading would point to easing inflation and increase expectations for more Fed rate cuts. This would typically pressure the dollar and support further declines in USD/JPY.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG RESISTANCE: 160 - 155. This area has acted as a major resistance since April 2024. The USD/JPY has tested this area three times over the past year and a half.
- 14-WEEK RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) POINTS TO OVERBOUGHT STATUS: According to the weekly graph below, the USD/JPY could be anticipated to experience a downward correction as the 14-Week RSI has already tested its overbought threshold of 70. However, USDJPY can also change its trend.
GRAPH (Weekly): November 2023 – December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USD/JPY, December 10, 2025.
Current Price: 156.60
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
160.00 |
|
|
159.00 |
|
|
158.10 |
|
|
155.00 |
|
|
153.00 |
|
|
150.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-2,171 |
-1,533 |
-958 |
1,022 |
2,299 |
4,215 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,863 |
-1,315 |
-822 |
877 |
1,973 |
3,617 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,630 |
-1,150 |
-719 |
767 |
1,726 |
3,164 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-3,007 |
-2,122 |
-1,327 |
1,415 |
3,184 |
5,837 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:40 (GMT) 10/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.