Wheat Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
- LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2024/2025: 793.24 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, the European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~12%, USA at ~6%, and Ukraine at ~3%.
- LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF A TOTAL 212.31 MILLION TONS (2024/2025): Russia at 22.62%, the European Union at 14.13%, Canada at 12.25%, Australia at 11.78%, the USA at 10.58%, and Ukraine at 7.54%.
- RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of total global exports.
IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR:
The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted the global wheat market, as both countries together account for over 30% of global wheat exports. Key effects include:
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ukraine’s wheat production and exports declined due to damaged infrastructure, blocked ports, and trade restrictions, while Russia’s export taxes and quotas further tightened global supply.
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK:
- RUSSIA–UKRAINE PEACE TALKS IN JEOPARDY. Uncertainties remain high even after President Trump- President Putin's phone call on May 19, as no breakthroughs have been announced. The phone call happened after a round of unsuccessful talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16, where there were no signs of a major breakthrough.
RECENT NEWS:
- RUSSIA’S FROST. Russia has been experiencing a period of frost in some key regions in May, which is expected to have a negative impact on the crop yields. This, in turn, raises fears over potential supply disruptions from the largest wheat exporter in the world.
- CHINA’S DROUGHT. China has been suffering scorching temperatures as some regions of China experience temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius, unusual for this time of the year. China is still among the largest wheat producers in the world, and high temperatures could have a negative impact on the crop yields. This, in turn, raises fears over potential supply disruptions from one of the largest wheat producers in the world.
RECENT PRICE ACTION:
- WHEAT PRICES HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $1356.50 (MARCH, 2022). Wheat was trading last near $545, and if a full recovery to 2022’s all-time high occurs, this could provide an upside of around 149%. Although prices could fall, too.
- 4–YEAR AVERAGE DAILY PRICE (MAY 21, 2021 – MAY 21, 2025): $696.83. The Wheat’s average price in the period between May 21, 2021, and May 21, 2025, which includes the Russia-Ukraine war, has been around $697. (Data Source: Meta Trader 4)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $520: Since March 2023, Wheat has been predominantly trading above the mark of $520. Wheat has tested the area around $520 five times since March 2023, and every time it would recover to levels toward 600 or above. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change. (Source: Fortrade Meta Trader 4 Platform).
GRAPH (Weekly): March 2023 – May 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
WHEAT, May 21, 2025
Current Price: 545
|
Wheat |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
700 |
|
|
640 |
|
|
580 |
|
|
515 |
|
|
500 |
|
|
490 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
WHEAT |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
15,500 |
9,500 |
3,500 |
-3,000 |
-4,500 |
-5,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
13,662 |
8,373 |
3,085 |
-2,644 |
-3,966 |
-4,848 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
11,550 |
7,079 |
2,608 |
-2,236 |
-3,353 |
-4,098 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
21,511 |
13,184 |
4,857 |
-4,163 |
-6,245 |
-7,633 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:00 (GMT+1) 21/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.