ALIBABA weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
CHINA E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.
ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
- EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 182% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 9.65, below the industry median of 19.79. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 24.18 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 70.93.
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue is expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
- FACT: Alibaba’s IPO price in 2014 was $68. Since its IPO the company’s annual revenue has grown over 1400% and its annual earnings have grown over 700%. Alibaba’s current price is $4 above its 2014 IPO price.
- EVENT: Alibaba Earnings (November 17, 2022- PREMARKET): Alibaba has confirmed it will post its financials on Thursday, November 17th. Its earnings have exceeded analysts’ forecasts 6 of the last 8 quarters.
- NEWS (SINGLES DAY- November 11th, 2022): Alibaba recorded record sales of $154 billion on the famous shopping holiday smashing the prior record of $84.5 billion according to the Chinese consulting company Syntun.
- ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $137.56, according to Bloomberg. Nomura set a price target of $115 on November 14th. Jeffries set a price target of $218 on November 11th, 2022, and Credit Suisse reiterated its target of $152 on November 8th.
- UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 340% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020).
(#ALIBABA), November 14, 2022
Current Price:72.00
|
Alibaba |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
114.00 |
|
|
99.00 |
|
|
84.00 |
|
|
62.00 |
|
|
55.00 |
|
|
48.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Alibaba |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
42,000.00 |
27,000.00 |
12,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-17,000.00 |
-24,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
40,809.19 |
26,234.48 |
11,659.77 |
-9,716.47 |
-16,518.00 |
-23,319.54 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
35,740.42 |
22,975.99 |
10,211.55 |
-8,509.62 |
-14,466.36 |
-20,423.10 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
55,854.96 |
35,906.76 |
15,958.56 |
-13,298.80 |
-22,607.96 |
-31,917.12 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:46 (GMT+1) 14/11/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details.