CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

ALIBABA

Special Reports - 14/11/2022

14 November, 2022

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

ALIBABA weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:

  • MARKET SIZE (EXPECTED: $5.55 trillion in 2022): The e-commerce (online sales) market is expected to total $5.55 trillion in 2022, accounting for 21% of total retail sales ($26.42 trillion). Two years ago only 17.8% of sales were made online.
  • MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E- commerce worldwide is expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales IN 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
  • MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY: China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 19% , UK with 4.8% and Japan with 3.0%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
  • MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the globals e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.

CHINA E-COMMERCE:

  • MARKET SIZE ($2.89 trillion): The Chinese e-commerce market was $2.89 trillion in 2021. The Chinese market grew at 17.7% per year since 2017.
  • MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE ITS GLOBAL SHARE TO 45% BY 2025 TO $3.3 FROM CURRENT $2.1 TRILLION): Chinese e-commerce value is expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 11.6% between 2021 and 2025 to reach CNY21.4 trillion (US$3.3 trillion) in 2025. That would be 45% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
  • MARKET SHARE: Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) is the largest online retailer in China with 47.1% market share. JD.com is second, capturing 16.9%, while Pinduoduo covers 13.2% of the Chinese E- commerce markets.

ALIBABA (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)

  • THE COMPANY: Alibaba is the world’s second largest online retailer by market capitalization and the largest in China. It was founded by Jack Ma, a billionaire and one of the richest men in China.
  • EARNINGS GROWTH and FUNDAMENTALS: Alibaba’s earnings grew over 182% over the past year. Alibaba’s forward P/E is 9.65, below the industry median of 19.79. Alibaba’s closest competitor in China, JD.com trades at a forward P/E of 24.18 and Amazon’s forward P/E is 70.93.
  • MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s revenue is expected to grow to over $185 billion per year in 2025 from current $105 billion, at a compounded annual growth rate of 15% per year. Its cloud computing revenue is expected to climb from $8.9 billion in 2021 to $23 billion in 2025. Cloud computing is the most profitable segment of its business.
  • FACT: Alibaba’s IPO price in 2014 was $68. Since its IPO the company’s annual revenue has grown over 1400% and its annual earnings have grown over 700%. Alibaba’s current price is $4 above its 2014 IPO price.
  • EVENT: Alibaba Earnings (November 17, 2022- PREMARKET): Alibaba has confirmed it will post its financials on Thursday, November 17th. Its earnings have exceeded analysts’ forecasts 6 of the last 8 quarters.
  • NEWS (SINGLES DAY- November 11th, 2022): Alibaba recorded record sales of $154 billion on the famous shopping holiday smashing the prior record of $84.5 billion according to the Chinese consulting company Syntun.
  • ANALYST OPINION: The consensus 12-month target is $137.56, according to Bloomberg. Nomura set a price target of $115 on November 14th. Jeffries set a price target of $218 on November 11th, 2022, and Credit Suisse reiterated its target of $152 on November 8th.
  • UPSIDE POTENTIAL: Alibaba’s current price would need to rise over 340% to reach its all-time high ($319.92: October 2020).

(#ALIBABA), November 14, 2022
Current Price:72.00

Alibaba

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

114.00

Resistance 2

99.00

Resistance 1

84.00

Support 1

62.00

Support 2

55.00

Support 3

48.00

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

Alibaba

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

42,000.00

27,000.00

12,000.00

-10,000.00

-17,000.00

-24,000.00

Profit or loss in €2

40,809.19

26,234.48

11,659.77

-9,716.47

-16,518.00

-23,319.54

Profit or loss in £2

35,740.42

22,975.99

10,211.55

-8,509.62

-14,466.36

-20,423.10

Profit or loss in C$2

55,854.96

35,906.76

15,958.56

-13,298.80

-22,607.96

-31,917.12

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
  2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:46 (GMT+1) 14/11/2022

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
  • Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more details.
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