CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

WHEAT

Market Opportunities - 21/09/2022

21 September, 2022

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible opportunity for profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

WHEAT weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:

  • LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2022: 774.8 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~10%, USA at ~6.4% and Ukraine ~3.4%.
  • LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF TOTAL 183.8 MILLION TONS (2020/2021): Russia at 23.9%, Canada at 12.44%, USA at 12.24%, France at 10.30% and Ukraine at 8.9%.
  • RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine would make around 33% of total global exports.

RUSSIA- UKRAINE WAR:

  • BREAKING (September 20- 21): WHEAT ROSE MORE THAN 10% TO 919 (ITS HIGHEST SINCE JULY 11). DONETSK, LUHANSK (DONBAS) AND ZAPORIZHIA REGIONS TO HOLD REFERENDUMS ON JOINING RUSSIA ON SEPTEMBER 23- 27. President Putin announced a partial mobilization, to defend their territories in Ukraine, which is a sign of worsening Ukraine conflict.
  • NEWS (September 7): RUSSIA’S PRESIDENT PUTIN EXPRESSED DOUBTS OVER THE GRAIN EXPORT DEAL WITH UKRAINE AS UKRAINE DO NOT ACT ACCORDING TO THE DEAL TERMS. President Putin raised concerns on 7 September on the future of the deal, claiming that only two of the 87 ships that had left the Black Sea region had reached developing countries. The deal was agreed to be in place initially for 120 days, with a review due in mid-November.
  • EVERY SECOND TO THIRD PIECE OF BREAD IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST IS PRODUCED FROM UKRAINIAN WHEAT: According to the Global Hunger Index, 47 countries had higher level of hunger in 2021, and the war in Ukraine could bring this number to more than 60 countries in 2022.

RECENT PRICE ACTION:

  • WHEAT PRICES HAVE HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 44% (FROM 1340 ON MARCH 4 TO 725.5 ON AUGUST 18). In early March, the Wheat prices rose to an all- time high of 1340. On August 1, the Wheat prices tested their lowest rate since October 15, 2021 (725.5). Wheat traded last around 905, and if a full recovery happens, it could provide an upside potential of around 48%.

WHEAT, September 21, 2022
Current Price:905

Wheat

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

1275

Resistance 2

1150

Resistance 1

1000

Support 1

820

Support 2

790

Support 3

765

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

WHEAT

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

37,000

24,500

9,500

-8,500

-11,500

-14,000

Profit or loss in €2

37,339

24,724

9,587

-8,578

-11,605

-14,128

Profit or loss in £2

32,620

21,599

8,375

-7,494

-10,139

-12,343

Profit or loss in C$2

49,451

32,745

12,697

-11,360

-15,370

-18,711

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:30 (GMT+1) 21/09/2022

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
  • Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail
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