Crude Oil - 15/10/2020

Micro Analysis

15 October, 2020 Research Department

For General Information only. Not Intended to Provide Trading or Investment Advice. Your Capital is at Risk.

Crude Oil Statistics: The Case of Crude Oil Breaking Under $40 A Barrel (Period June- October 2020)

Crude Oil has been trading in consolidation around and slightly above the mark of 40.0 since June 2020, which included a period of worldwide lockdown measures due to COVID-19 pandemic.
The purpose of this analysis is to show how downward corrections Crude Oil has suffered after the price entered a consolidation phase, which started in June 2020. The price of Crude Oil had upward movements in this period as well and this is illustrated in the Graph (Crude Oil, Daily). Consequently, future price movements are hard to predict.
How Many Times It Breaks Below 40: According to our analysis, Crude Oil has four times firmly broken below the mark of 40 in the period between June and October 2020. Crude Oil has made a firm breach twice in June and twice in September 2020.
Time Needed To Reach Its Low: On average, Crude Oil has reached its lows within 4 days.
Dollar Correction Below $40: On average, Crude Oil has made a downward correction of $4.87 after firmly breaking below the mark of $40.0.
What Is the Average Low When a Downward Correction Happens: Average Low Price is $36.06.

Table I: Crude Oil Downward Corrections Below 40 in the period between June and October 2020.

Start Correction Date	Average Open*	Low	Price Change	Sessions to Reach Low
Monday, June 8, 2020	$40.20	$34.46	$5.74	5
Wednesday, June 24, 2020	$40.80	$37.06	$3.74	3
Friday, September 4, 2020	$41.88	$36.11	$5.77	4
Tuesday, September 29, 2020	$40.85	$36.61	$4.24	4

Average Open Price$	$40.93
Average Low Price$		$36.06
Average Price$ Correction			$4.87	4

Source: Fortrade MetaTrader4

*- Average Open Price is derived from the average prices above the mark of $40 before it retreats below $40.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Technical Overview:

The chart below shows the four occasions when crude oil has downwardly corrected in the period between June and October 2020. The corrections are well depicted by gray rectangles and numerically explained in Table I.

Graph: (Crude Oil, Daily)

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