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Crude Oil - 11/11/2020

Micro Analysis

11 November, 2020

For General Information only. Not Intended to Provide Trading or Investment Advice. Your Capital is at Risk.

Crude Oil Statistics: The Case of Crude Oil Breaking Under $40 A Barrel (Period June-November 2020)

  • Crude Oil has been trading in consolidation around and slightly above the mark of 40.0 since June 2020, which included a period of worldwide lockdown measures due to COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The purpose of this analysis is to show how downward corrections Crude Oil has suffered after the price entered a consolidation phase, which started in June 2020. The price of Crude Oil had upward movements in this period as well and this is illustrated in the Graph (Crude Oil, Daily). Consequently, future price movements are hard to predict.
  • How Many Times It Breaks Below 40: According to our analysis, Crude Oil has five times firmly broken below the mark of 40 in the period between June and November 2020. Crude Oil has made a firm breach twice in June, twice in September 2020 and once in October 2020.
  • Time Needed To Reach Its Low: On average, Crude Oil has reached its lows within 4.8 days.
  • Dollar Correction Below $40: On average, Crude Oil has made a downward correction of $5.36 after firmly breaking below the mark of $40.0.
  • What Is the Average Low When a Downward Correction Happens: Average Low Price is $35.57.

Table I: Crude Oil Downward Corrections Below 40 in the period between June and November 2020.

Start Correction Date

Average Open


Price Change

Sessions to Reach Low

Monday, June 8, 2020





Wednesday, June 24, 2020





Friday, September 4, 2020





Tuesday, September 29, 2020





Friday, October 23, 2020





Average Open Price$


Average Low Price$


Average Price$ Correction



Source: Fortrade MetaTrader4

*-Average Open Price is derived from the average prices above the mark of $40 before it retreats below $40.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Technical Overview:

The chart below shows the five occasions when crude oil has downwardly corrected in the period between June and November 2020. The corrections are well depicted by gray rectangles and numerically explained in Table I.

Graph: (Crude Oil, Daily)


  • Crude oil moved up above the mark of 40.0, supported by recent COVID-19 vaccine news, but the upside potential remained limited due to rising coronavirus cases, leading countries to resume lockdowns that could hurt fuel demand. Crude oil managed to test its highest rate since early March 2020 on August 26 (43.75). However, Crude oil have broken below the mark of 40.00 a few times, testing its lowest rate since late May (33.61) on November 2.


  • Oil’s upside potential may remain capped at levels above 40.00 as coronavirus cases continued to rise across the world, leading countries to resume partial lockdowns that could hurt fuel demand. New outbreaks are reported in several countries, prompting governments to impose restrictions again. In November, several countries in Europe entered new lockdowns including France, Germany, Italy and the UK.
  • The world printed another record one-day increase of new daily coronavirus cases on November 5, 2020 (608443) reminding the authorities that the virus is still present and more restrictions might be needed in order to contain the virus. The US printed a record daily COVID-19 cases on November 5 (118204).

Mid-Term Technical Outlook

  • Crude oil has risen around 30% over the past few sessions to break above the mark of 40 and test its highest rate
  • From technical perspective, Crude oil could be expected to come under negative pressure as suggested by the daily RSI, which has risen up close to its overbought threshold of 70.
  • If the analysis manages to live up to the technical expectations, the Crude oil price may retreat and eventually target Support 1 of 39.90 and Support 2 of 37.00 in extension.
  • If, however, the analysis fails to live up to the expectations and price extends its rally, Crude oil may target Resistance 1 of 46.00.

Graph: (Crude Oil, Daily)

Current Price: 43.00

Crude Oil


Trend direction


Resistance 3


Resistance 2


Resistance 1


Support 1


Support 2


Support 3


Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*

Crude Oil

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $







Profit or loss in €**







Profit or loss in £**







Profit or loss in C$**







* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:39 a.m. (GMT) 11/11/2020
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account Manager for more details

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