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Nio Inc. (#NIO) - 28/12/2020

Micro Analysis

28 December, 2020

For General Information only. Not Intended to Provide Trading or Investment Advice. Your Capital is at Risk.


COMPANY: Nio Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. Nio serves customers worldwide. Nio is considered a strong competition to Tesla Inc., especially in China. Nio Inc. is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Nio currently sells the ES8 and ES6 electric SUVs, and a new EC6 electric crossover (seen as a potential competition to Tesla’s Model Y in China).

EVENT: NIO DAY (January 9, 2021): Nio is expected to launch a mid-size sedan, the ET7, which is expected to compete with Tesla's Model 3. Nio Inc. will also release a 150 kWh battery (NIO currently offers 70 kWh, 84 kWh, and 100 kWh battery packs.), an upgraded autopilot system that uses laser-based sensors for vehicles to gauge their surroundings. They will also announce a new battery-swap station.

COMPANY FINANCIALS: Nio Inc. is expected to rake in 2.44 billion dollars in revenue in 2020, up from 1.78 billion dollars in 2019. According to Bloomberg, the company is expected to grow in 2021 and rake in 4.88 billion dollars in revenue, which would represent a revenue growth rate of around 100%.

Nio has a market capitalization of 73.46 billion dollars, which is more than 8 times less than Tesla’s 612.3 billion dollars.

For the whole of 2020, the company expects a delivery of 36,700 vehicles. For all of Q4, Nio sees deliveries of 16,500-17,000 vehicles, up 101%-107% from a year ago. CEO William Li said Nio should reach annual production capacity of 150,000 units by the end of 2021. Longer term, Nio aims to double output to 300,000 per year.

Nio operates in China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicle, and it is expected to expand in Europe in 2021. According to JPMorgan, Nio could be expected to grab 30% of the Electric Vehicle market.

ANALYST OPINION (Goldman Sachs/ Credit Suisse/ JPMorgan): Goldman Sachs maintained a stock price target of $59, while Credit Suisse maintained a price target of $60 a share. In addition, J.P. Morgan maintained an overweight call and a price target of $50 a share.

NIO STOCK PRICE ACTION (2018- 2020): Since the second half of 2018, when the Nio stock made its debut in the U.S., the stock has risen by whooping 650%. The Nio stock hit an all-time high of $57.20 in late November 2020. Since the beginning of the year the stock has gone up by amazing 1075%.

Nio Inc. stock price daily volatility

  • Daily stock price volatility increased to 8.63% per day in 2020.
  • Since mid-February 2020, when the Coronavirus crisis started to hit the stock markets, the average daily volatility has risen to 8.47%.

  • Example of calculation based on Volatility for 1.00 Lot (1 lot = 1000 stocks)

  • Technical Outlook (Nio Inc., Monthly, 2018- 2020)

Source: Bloomberg

Current Price: 45.60

Nio Inc.


Trend direction


Resistance 3


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Resistance 1


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Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*

Nio Inc.

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

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Support 3

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* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:11 (GMT) 28/12/2020
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*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
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