Oil surges on Saudi supply fears, while Exxon hits record high
October 27, 2026
This week
The major economic event of the week will be Wednesday’s Fed’s rate decision, alongside Alphabet and Microsoft earnings; Amazon reports on Thursday, October 29. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but comments on inflation is likely to shape expectations for December’s rate decision. Thursday’s US GDP and PCE inflation figures will provide more clues on the state of the US economy, while Exxon reports on Friday, October 30.
Stocks
Amazon
Amazon fell 0.8% over the week after reaching a seven-week high. Hopes for continued growth at Amazon Web Services (AWS) division and Morgan Stanley naming Amazon its top stock pick, with a $350 price target, initially lifted the shares. However, the tech sell-off brought back concerns that its planned $220 billion in spending this year could put pressure on cash flow before the returns come through. Amazon reports on Thursday, October 29, with investors looking for signs that strong demand for AWS would create faster growth. The company expects quarterly sales of $197–202 billion.
ExxonMobil
Exxon gained 2.4% over the week, reaching a record high as rising oil prices generally and the company said on Friday that stronger refining margins boosted the outlook for its earnings. Barclays and Goldman Sachs both raised their price targets, while Exxon’s latest update suggested a sharp increase in refining profits as supply disruptions pushed up fuel prices. Lower crude prices during part of the quarter could offset some of those gains. Investors will get a much clearer picture when Exxon reports its results on October 30.
Commodities
Crude Oil
Crude oil rose 4.5% over the week, reaching a six-week high as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raised fears of further disruption to oil supplies. Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters on Thursday as fighting intensified, while a reported oil spill off the UAE added to concerns. Libya also shut a pipeline valve linking the Hamada and Tahara fields to Zawiya port, cutting production. Russia’s first diesel shipment bound for the US offered some relief for fuel supplies, but did little to ease concerns about crude oil deliveries from the Middle East.
Gold
Gold fell 4.1% to a three-month low, dropping below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since July. Rising oil prices fuelled fears that inflation would stay high, strengthening expectations of a US interest-rate hike in December and making gold less attractive than interest-bearing assets. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields added to the pressure. Gold also suffered from forced selling as the technology sell-off triggered margin calls, leaving investors selling assets to cover losses elsewhere.
Aluminium
Aluminium gained 1.4% to its highest close in ten days. Falling London Metal Exchange warehouse stocks and tighter availability of metal for delivery helped support prices, while higher alumina prices added to smelters’ costs. Disruption to production in the Gulf remained a concern, although some capacity was restarting. At the same time, record Chinese production and the prospect of more supply from outside the Middle East put a limit on this week’s rise.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD fell 0.9% to hit a one-month low as the Canadian dollar strengthened. Higher oil prices supported Canada’s export earnings, while Friday’s retail figures showed sales rose 1.2%, beating expectations. September inflation of 3.1% reinforced expectations of a Bank of Canada increase on Wednesday, October 28. The Fed is expected to leave its rates unchanged that same day, although markets still assign roughly an 80.0% probability to a December hike. That difference helped the Canadian dollar outperform.
Recap
Last week the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and the Dow Jones added 0.4%, as concern over financing heavy AI investment pushed technology shares lower. The S&P and Nasdaq recorded their second consecutive weekly losses. Crude oil rose, while gold, silver, platinum and palladium declined. Investors continued to price in the chances of renewed US-Iran fighting amid further Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities. Saudi Aramco ordered its headquarters evacuated on Thursday, amid intensifying hostilities. Positive results from Meta and Tesla were posted, but concerns that AI spending and borrowing costs were rising too quickly left markets cautious as the earnings season gathered pace.