Tesla

Tesla (#TSLA) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:

GLOBAL EV MARKETS:

• ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% from 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
• MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market could be growing annually on average by 18.6%.

CHINA EV MARKETS:

• MARKET SHARE CHINA: Tesla is the largest EV Company in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%) and BYD (~ 10%)
• ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA COULD BE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales may be expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) will be Electric Vehicles.

TESLA: ANALYSIS

• EVENT (MARCH 1): INVESTORS DAY. Tesla said investors could see most advanced production line as well as discuss long-term expansion plans, generation 3 platform, capital allocation, and other subjects with our leadership team. One of the things that will be discussed at Investor Day includes Tesla’s long-term expansion plans. Some analysts expect Tesla may give more details about their revolutionary Pick- UP CYBERTRUCK model, which should come into production and delivery in mid- 2023.
• NEWS: CHINA TESLA DELIVERED 18.40% MORE CARS IN JANUARY COMPARED WITH DECEMBER. Tesla delivered 66,051 cars in January, which is an 18.40% increase from December’s 55,796.
• Q4 EARNINGS REPORT: REVENUE (BEAT): $24.32 Billion (New Record) vs. $24.16 Billion expected. This is 35% increase from the same period last year and increase of 13.35% from Q3. EARNINGS PER SHARE (BEAT): $1.19 vs. $1.12 expected. NET INCOME (RECORD HIGH): $3.7 Billion. This is 59% increase from the same period last year increase of 12% from Q3. CAR DELIVERY FORECAST 2023: 1.8 MILLION CARS. CEO Elon Musk said the company might be able to produce 2 million cars this year. CYBERTRUCK (THE NEW PRODUCT): The Company also reiterated that its Cybertruck pickup is on track to start production this year in Texas, but will not reach volume production until next year. Q4 CAR DELIVERY DATA. Tesla delivered a record high number of cars in Q4 of 2022= 405,278. This is 17.87% up from Q3 of 2022 (383,830). This is also 31.32% up from Q4 of 2021= 308,600. YEARLY: Tesla delivered a record high number of cars in 2022= 1,313,851. This is 40.37% up from 2021 (936,000). ANALYST EXPECTATIONS: Tesla analysts say Tesla will target a 1.8- 1.9 million cars of delivery in 2023. This could be 37% to 44.6% up from 2022.
• TESLA STARTED DELIVERY OF ITS SEMI- TRUCK ON DECEMBER 1, 2022. Tesla delivered 15 trucks to Pepsi by the end of 2022 as part of their 100 trucks deal.
• NEXT GIGA-FACTORY: INDONESIA. Tesla is close to a deal to start building a new Gigafactory in Indonesia, with capacity of 1 million vehicles. All that will be in addition to current factories in Berlin (Germany), Shanghai (China), Fermont and Austin (USA). Including Indonesia, Tesla could reach production capacity of 3.4 million vehicles.

TESLA: PRICE ACTION

• THE STOCK HAS HAD A DOWNWARD CORRECTION OF AROUND 76% FROM ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $414.4 (November 4, 2021). The stock fell to its lowest rate since August 2020 to $100.74 (January 6, 2023). Tesla was last trading around $195, and if a full recovery follows to recent all- time highs, the stock could see an upside of around 112%, however the price could decline further.
• ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Wedbush forecasts $225. Morgan Stanley forecasts $220. Deutsche Bank forecasts $220. Muziho Securities forecasts $250.

#TSLA, February 7, 2023
Current Price: 195

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT) 07/02/2023
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