Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18 AT 13:30 GMT: US INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER). A weaker CPI reading would reinforce expectations for additional Fed cuts. A softer dollar and easier financial conditions generally improve sentiment toward commodities like palladium.
- TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 AT 14:15 GMT: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (OCTOBER). Stronger industrial production would signal improving manufacturing activity, which directly boosts demand for palladium in catalytic converters and can support higher prices. This kind of data often reinforces expectations of steady industrial consumption, adding upward pressure to palladium.
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31 AT 1:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (DECEMBER). A stronger-than-expected PMI reading would signal improving factory activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of palladium. Rising manufacturing momentum would point to firmer industrial and automotive demand, supporting a bullish outlook for palladium prices.
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 10): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 3.75% FROM 4.00%. The Fed cut rates again in December, and October after the one earlier in September. In total, this year, rates have fallen from 4.50% to the current 3.75%.
- LAST TIME: Following the previous two interest rate cuts (September and October 2025) by the FED, Palladium rose on average 23.48% after one month.
- WHY RATE CUTS SUPPORT PALLADIUM PRICES: Lower interest rates weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce the cost of holding non-yielding assets like palladium. A softer dollar makes palladium cheaper for international buyers, while looser financial conditions generally support industrial demand, including the automotive sector, where palladium is heavily used in catalytic converters.
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Palladium Price Performance 1-Month After Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut (2025) |
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PALLADIUM: 1-Month Reaction |
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Date |
FED Action |
P0 |
P1 (1-Month) |
Price Change $ |
Price Change % |
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17-Sep-25 |
Cut: 25 bps to 4.25% |
$ 1,205.25 |
$ 1,681.75 |
$ 476.50 |
39.54% |
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29-Oct-25 |
Cut: 25 bps to 4.00% |
$ 1,424.75 |
$ 1,530.50 |
$ 105.75 |
7.42% |
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AVERAGE |
$ 291.13 |
23.48% |
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- UPTREND SINCE AUGUST 2025: As shown in the daily chart below, the price of palladium has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising uptrend channel since August 2025. However, the price could decline.
- SUPPORT: $1,500 - $1,550. The area has acted as strong support since early October 2025.
- PALLADIUM PRICE ABOVE 20-,50-, AND 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGES: Palladium price has remained above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, indicating a potential uptrend. The trend could reverse if Palladium price goes below these averages.
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1,620, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 110%. Although the price could decline as well.
GRAPH (Daily): June 2025 – December 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Palladium, December 16, 2025.
Current Price: 1,620
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PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
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Trend direction |
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1,800 |
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1,750 |
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1,700 |
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1,550 |
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1,520 |
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1,500 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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PALLADIUM |
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Pivot Points |
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Profit or loss in $ |
18,000 |
13,000 |
8,000 |
-7,000 |
-10,000 |
-12,000 |
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Profit or loss in €² |
15,307 |
11,055 |
6,803 |
-5,953 |
-8,504 |
-10,205 |
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Profit or loss in £² |
13,424 |
9,695 |
5,966 |
-5,221 |
-7,458 |
-8,949 |
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Profit or loss in C$² |
24,790 |
17,904 |
11,018 |
-9,640 |
-13,772 |
-16,526 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:10 (GMT) 16/12/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.