USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 13 AT 13:30 GMT: US INFLATION (CPI) DATA (DECEMBER). U.S. inflation came in at 2.7% in November, below the previous 3%. This is its lowest reading since July 2025. Core Inflation also fell in November, coming in at 2.6% (vs. 3% expected and the previous 3%). It is its lowest reading since March 2021. Another soft CPI print would reinforce pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting further downside in USD/JPY.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14 AT 13:30 GMT: US RETAIL SALES (NOVEMBER). Because the US is a consumption-driven economy, this data is very important since it signals the overall health of the economy. If the data comes out low, it could point to more interest rate cuts by the FED, weighing on the dollar and adding downside pressure to USD/JPY. The results for the previous month stand at 3.47%, which is lower than the month before (4.18%).
- THURSDAY, JANUARY 15 AT 00:50 GMT: JAPAN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) YoY (DECEMBER). Japan’s PPI has remained elevated at 2.7% in recent months, pointing to persistent upstream price pressures. The December reading is expected at 2.4%, and any print above expectations would reinforce the view that inflation pressures are present. This would support expectations of further BOJ tightening, strengthening the yen, and adding downside pressure to USD/JPY.
US FEDERAL RESERVE
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10: U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CUTS INTEREST RATES TO 3.75%. This is their third consecutive rate cut, following those on September 17 and October 29, 2025. It marks the lowest rate since September 2022. The move reflects growing concern over a weakening U.S. labor market and reinforces expectations of further policy easing. Lower U.S. interest rates put additional downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE A NEW FED CHAIR IN JANUARY 2026. According to Reuters, President Donald Trump is expected to announce the next Federal Reserve chair later this month. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said several candidates have already been interviewed. Trump told the New York Times he has already made up his mind, and Bloomberg views Kevin Hassett, who is close to Trump and supportive of lower interest rates, as a leading contender. The prospect of a Fed leadership more supportive of lower interest rates could add further downside pressure to the U.S. dollar.
BANK OF JAPAN
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 19): BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RAISES INTEREST RATES TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 30 YEARS. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades. The move confirmed the BOJ’s shift away from ultra-loose policy after years of stimulus. Expectations of further normalization support the yen and add downside pressure on USD/JPY.
- BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD (JANUARY 5): According to Reuters, Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ will continue raising interest rates if economic and inflation trends remain in line with forecasts. He highlighted rising wages and prices, while noting that Japan’s real interest rates remain deeply negative. Recently, import costs and inflation have risen, increasing pressure on the BOJ to tighten further. This reinforces expectations of continued BOJ tightening, supporting yen strength and further downside risks for USD/JPY.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG RESISTANCE: 160 - 155. This area has acted as a major resistance since April 2024. The USD/JPY has tested this area three times over the past year and a half.
- 14-WEEK RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI) POINTS TO OVERBOUGHT STATUS: According to the weekly graph below, the USD/JPY could be anticipated to experience a downward correction as the 14-Week RSI has already tested its overbought threshold of 70 recently. However, the USDJPY price can also change its trend.
GRAPH (Weekly): December 2023 – January 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
USD/JPY, January 13, 2026
Current Price: 159.10
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
162.00 |
|
|
161.50 |
|
|
161.00 |
|
|
157.00 |
|
|
156.00 |
|
|
155.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,824 |
-1,509 |
-1,195 |
1,321 |
1,950 |
2,579 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,564 |
-1,294 |
-1,025 |
1,132 |
1,672 |
2,211 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,354 |
-1,121 |
-887 |
981 |
1,447 |
1,914 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,531 |
-2,095 |
-1,659 |
1,833 |
2,706 |
3,579 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 08:10 (GMT) 13/01/2026
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit