CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

COCOA (#COCOA)

Special Reports - 03/10/2024

03 October, 2024

The example below uses Contracts For Difference (CFDs). Calculations are only on the price of the specific instrument on the date below and calculations indicate a possible profit or loss. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL REVIEW

  • COCOA PRICES TESTED THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 3 MONTHS ON SEPTEMBER 4 ($6831). Cocoa was trading around the mark of $6900 on October 3.

  • COCOA PRICES HAVE TESTED THE MARK OF $7000 (OR NEAR) 7 TIMES SINCE MAY 2024. This is the 8th time that the Cocoa prices are testing levels near the mark of $7000.

GRAPH (DAILY): APRIL 2024 - SEPTEMBER 2024

  • 2024 STATISTICS: COCOA TENDS TO RECOVER BY AROUND 27% AFTER TESTING THE MARK OF $7000 OR NEAR IT.

DATA SOURCE: Fortrade MetaTrader 4

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

KEY FUNDAMENTALS:

  • TOP COCOA PRODUCERS (tonnes): 1. Ivory Coast - 2.200m, 2. Ghana - 1.100m, 3. Indonesia - 0.667m, 4. Ecuador - 0.337m, 5. Cameroon - 0.300m.

  • SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over 60% of the world's cocoa, are facing severe harvest problems.

  • CONSUMER TRENDS: Traditional consumer markets for cocoa include Europe, North America, and South America, where consumption has shown stagnation in recent years.

NEWS AND EVENTS

  • AUGUST 2024 MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REVIEW BY THE INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO): According to the ICCO, Reports of conducive weather conditions, which is expected to bolster the 2024/25 main crop especially across the West African cocoa belt, were the main factor that provided the relief in prices. The fall in prices signaled easing concerns about the availability of cocoa beans. MARKET DEFICIT: Earlier in their quarterly report, the ICCO specified that current market deficit amounts to 439,000 million tons, up from previous estimates of 374,000 million tons.

  • NEWS (AUGUST 26): GHANA STRUGGLES TO SECURE FUNDING OF COCOA MARKET NEXT SEASON. According to Bloomberg, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, known as Cocobod, is still in talks with foreign lenders to raise a syndicated loan to fund the next season’s crop. Negotiations are ongoing, but it will not bring in more than $600 million out of an initial target of $1.5 billion.

COCOA (#COCOA) October 3, 2024
Current Price: 6,905

Cocoa

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

10,000

Resistance 2

9,000

Resistance 1

8,000

Support 1

6,000

Support 2

5,800

Support 3

5,600

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1

Cocoa

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

30,950

20,950

10,950

-9,050

-11,050

-13,050

Profit or loss in €²

28,041

18,981

9,921

-8,199

-10,011

-11,823

Profit or loss in £²

23,592

15,970

8,347

-6,899

-8,423

-9,948

Profit or loss in C$²

41,857

28,333

14,809

-12,239

-14,944

-17,649

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units

  2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT+1) 3/10/2024

There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one

  • Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.

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