Weekly Special Report: COCOA (#COCOA)

FUNDAMENTALS:

• SUPPLY SIDE: Cocoa beans are grown primarily in West Africa, with the Ivory Coast (40% of the world’s total) and Ghana (18% of the world’s total). Behind them are Indonesia (11.4%), Ecuador (6,7%), and Brazil (5.2%).
• DEMAND SIDE: Demand for cocoa is strong and growing, especially from countries that are developing fast, like China and India, with a growing middle class eager to consume and gift chocolate. The demand for cocoa is as follows: Europe (35% of the world’s total), Asia and Oceania (21%), Africa (22%), and the Americas (North and South) (18%).

HARVEST SEASON:

• WEST AFRICAN COCOA HARVEST (OCTOBER 2026): October could be a key month for cocoa prices as the West African harvest enters full swing. Early forecasts point to smaller crops, with Ivory Coast at 1.8 Million Metric Tons (-18%) and Ghana at 650,000 Million Metric Tons (-13%). October is typically the market’s most volatile period, with volatility reaching around 48% versus just 18% in August. This means that if the expected harvest arrivals disappoint because of poor weather, disease, or delayed supply, even a small supply shortfall could provide positive support to cocoa prices.

EVENTS:

• EVENT (OCTOBER 2026): WEST AFRICAN COCOA HARVEST ENTERS FULL SWING. October marks the key logistical start of the West African main crop, with traders watching for a potential surge of delayed cocoa arrivals into Ivory Coast and Ghana after a late harvest disrupted the normal September flow. The arrival rush could put pressure on prices if ports and new electronic traceability systems struggle to handle the backlog.
• EVENT (OCTOBER 29, 2026): NIGERIA/WEST AFRICA COCOA ORIGINS MEET EU COCOA INDUSTRY. West African cocoa producers, government stakeholders, financiers and European cocoa-industry participants will meet in Brussels to discuss market access, partnerships and investment opportunities. Traders will be watching the event for signals on how evolving EU sustainability, traceability and regulatory requirements could affect West African cocoa exports and the region’s competitiveness in the European market.

Source: EuroCocoa, Reuters

NEWS:

• BREAKING (SEPTEMBER  2026): EL NIÑO SET TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER —The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is expected to intensify to a very strong event, with nearly 100% odds of persisting through February 2027 and risks of major floods, droughts and extreme heat.
• BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 2026): COCOA SUPPLY OUTLOOK TIGHTENS AS MAJOR PRODUCTION CUTS HIT WEST AFRICA. Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop estimate has been cut to around 1.8 million metric tons, while Cameroon has reported a sharp contraction in bean supplies, with major grinder Guan Chong warning of a potential 300,000–400,000 metric ton global deficit

Source: Reuters, World Meteorological Organization

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND PRICE ACTION

• SUPPORT AREA: $5,000 - $4,500. Cocoa prices have previously established a strong technical support area between $5,000 and $4,500. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
• UPTREND: COCOA PRICES HIT THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN 9 MONTHS ($6,557). The daily chart below shows that cocoa has been trading within a steady upward trend, rising by around 68% between early June and late August and reaching its highest level in more than nine months at $6,557.
• ALL-TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): $12,911. Cocoa last traded around $5,460, and if the cocoa price tries to recover to its all-time high of $12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 136%. Although prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (Daily): February 2026 - September 2026

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

#COCOA, September 25, 2026
Current Price: 5,460

Example of calculation based on weekly market trend for 1.00 Lot¹ 

1. The above calculations are made based on 1.00 lot which is equivalent of 10 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:00 (GMT+1) 25/09/2026
   
   You can use risk management tools such as Stop-Loss and Take-Profit