Risk Disclaimer: The example below is for illustrative purposes only and is based on price movements derived from Contracts for Difference (CFDs). The calculations reflect hypothetical outcomes using historical or specified price data for the relevant instrument on the stated date and are not indicative of future performance. Any reliance placed on this material is strictly at the user’s own risk.
EUR/USD Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: EUROZONE
- FRENCH GOVERNMENT COLLAPSED OVER 2025 BUDGET VOTE. The French government has been toppled in a vote of no confidence, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty. New parliamentary elections cannot take place until next June-July, 12 months on from the last vote. Further uncertainties, therefore, could be expected, which could put the Euro under negative pressure.
- GERMAN GOVERNMENT TO FACE CONFIDENCE VOTE ON DECEMBER 16, 2024. According to France24, the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will face a confidence vote on December 16 ahead of new parliamentary elections expected to be scheduled for February 23, 2025, following the shock collapse of the chancellor's three-party coalition. Germany’s three-party ruling coalition collapsed as the Free Democratic Party (FDP) left the coalition which member Linder was in. This weighs on the euro, exacerbating the EUR/USD pair's decline.
EVENTS (USA):
- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of November. The CPI inflation data from last month of October came out at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September.
EVENTS (EUROPE):
- THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 AT 13:15 GMT: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION. The decision will be followed by a press conference at 13:45 GMT. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate in October from 3.65% to the current 3.40%, and investors expect the ECB could continue with their rate-cutting cycle. The benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone is now expected to be slashed below 3.40%. If the ECB does decide on an interest rate cut, this could push the EURO lower.
PRICE ACTION: EUR/USD
- BREAKING (NOVEMBER 22): EUR/USD HIT ITS LOWEST RATE IN TWO YEARS (1.03305). The EUR/USD currency pair has fallen, as the US dollar continued rising, extending its post-US presidential election rally. Meanwhile, negative economic data in Europe and developing political crises in Germany and France have also put the Euro under negative pressure.
ANALYST OPINION:
- HSBC: The bank forecasts that the EUR/USD will fall below parity to 0.99 by the end of 2025.
EURUSD, DECEMBER 10, 2024
Current Price: 1.0550
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
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EUR/USD
|
|
Pivot Points
|
Resistance 3
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Resistance 2
|
Resistance 1
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Support 1
|
Support 2
|
Support 3
|
|
Profit or loss in $
|
-2,500
|
-2,000
|
-1,500
|
1,500
|
3,500
|
5,500
|
|
Profit or loss in €²
|
-2,370
|
-1,896
|
-1,422
|
1,422
|
3,318
|
5,213
|
|
Profit or loss in £²
|
-1,960
|
-1,568
|
-1,176
|
1,176
|
2,744
|
4,311
|
|
Profit or loss in C$²
|
-3,543
|
-2,834
|
-2,126
|
2,126
|
4,960
|
7,794
|
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 10/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.
