NIO (#NIO) weekly uptrend opportunity based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL EV MARKETS:
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) MAKE ONLY AROUND 9.0% OF TOTAL CAR SALES, WORTH 66.7 MILLION CARS IN 2021: The total global car market grew just 4.5% in 2021, by around 66.7 million cars. In 2020, the world sold around 63.8 million cars. The estimates say that around 6.5 million electric vehicles (EVs) were sold worldwide in 2021, up 109% on 2020. EV sales represent around 9% of all passenger car sales in 2021. The EV sector increased its market share from 4.11% in 2021 to around 9.00% off the global car sales.
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MARKET POTENTIAL: ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV) ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP AROUND 50% OF GLOBAL CAR SALES BY 2030. The 2021 figures of 287.36 billion dollars are an increase of around 76% from 2020’s 160.01 billion dollars. Expecting this number to grow to 823.75 billion dollars, the EV market should be growing annually on average by 18.6%.
CHINA EV MARKETS:
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CHINA LEADS THE WAY (2021): EV MAKES AROUND 13% OF THE CAR MARKET IN CHINA, UP FROM 3.5% IN 2020: More than half of the total electric vehicles (EVs) sold worldwide last year (including plug-in hybrids) went to buyers in China. China led global EV growth in 2021 as sales nearly tripled (UP 277%) to 3.4 million (from 0.9 million in 2020). Total number of cars sold in 2021 in China was 26.28 million, and EV made around 13% of the market. Tesla is the largest EV in China, holding some 14% of the markets, followed by GM’s Wulling (~11.8%), BYD (~10%) and NIO with 2.7%.
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CHINA’S EV MARKETS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 61.76% in 2022 TO 5.5 MILLION VEHICLES. Globally, the EV markets are expected to grow from 6.5 million to 9.75 million units in 2022, which is an increase of around 50%. In China, the estimates say that around 25 million cars in total will be sold. The EV would make up around 20% of the total car markets.
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CHINA ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE UP 40% OF CHINA’S CAR SALES BY 2030. Total car sales are expected to grow to 38 million in 2030, while around 15 million (or 40%) to be Electric Vehicles.
NIO:
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THE COMPANY: Nio offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. It currently sells the ES8 and ES6 electric SUVs, and a new EC6 electric crossover. In early January 2021 they revealed their new sedan ET7 that will be selling in 2022. On December 18, 2021, they revealed a cheaper sedan ET5, and they plan soon to announce a new model, that of ES7. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
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NIO MADE 2.7% OF THE CHINA’S EV MARKET IN 2021. NIO delivered 91,429 vehicles in 2021 in total, increasing by 109.1% year-over-year. China sold around 3.4 million Electric Vehicles in 2021.
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NIO CAR SALES TO GROW ON AVERAGE 52.30% ANNUALLY BETWEEN 2022 AND 2025. Nio delivered 91,429 vehicles in 2021, and that number is expected to jump to at least 469,687 in 2025.
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NIO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE 4.34% OF THE GLOBAL EV MARKET BY 2025 (UP FROM 1.78% IN 2021). Revenue outlook rises from 2021’s $5.14 billion to $24.67 billion in 2025 per year (increase of 379%). With these numbers, Nio can be expected to increase its global market share from current 1.78% to 4.34% in 2025.
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EVENT (EXPECTED: END OF MAY): ES7 MODEL (NEW MODEL) TO BE INTRODUCED.
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ANALYST OPINION: Morgan Stanley target is at $66 on the stock. Credit Suisse forecasts $38, while Deutsche Bank at $50 a share. JP Morgan targets $30 a share. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $29 a share. Morgan Stanley sits at $34. AVERAGE BLOOMBERG ANALYSTS’ CONSENSUS is $38.55 a share.
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STOCK PRICE ACTION: NIO stock made its all-time high of $66.85 in January, 2021. The stock currently trades below 17. If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 293%.
NIO, April 26, 2022
Current Price: 17.30
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NIO |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
25.50 |
|
|
23.00 |
|
|
20.70 |
|
|
14.00 |
|
|
13.00 |
|
|
12.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
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Pivot Points |
||||||
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Profit or loss in $ |
8,200.00 |
5,700.00 |
3,400.00 |
-3,300.00 |
-4,300.00 |
-5,300.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €** |
7,634.87 |
5,307.16 |
3,165.68 |
-3,072.57 |
-4,003.65 |
-4,934.73 |
|
Profit or loss in £** |
6,241.53 |
4,338.63 |
2,587.95 |
-2,511.84 |
-3,273.00 |
-4,034.16 |
|
Profit or loss in C$** |
10,261.97 |
7,133.32 |
4,254.96 |
-4,129.82 |
-5,381.28 |
-6,632.74 |
* 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1 000 units
** Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:35 (GMT+1) 26/04/2022
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Client Manager regarding their use.
*** You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
**** Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Client Manager for more detail