COFFEE Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
COFFEE USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Coffee is one of the most actively traded agricultural commodities in the world and the most consumed beverage after water. Every day, an estimated 2.25 billion cups are consumed globally, making coffee a vital part of daily life and a key driver of agricultural economies.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Brazil dominates global coffee production with about 36–37% of total output, followed by Vietnam (17%), Colombia (7%), Ethiopia (6.5%), and Indonesia (6%). On the export side, Brazil leads with 22.2%, while Vietnam, Switzerland, Germany, and Colombia follow as key suppliers—each holding between 7–8% of global exports.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): The United States is the largest coffee importer, representing 17.7% of global demand, followed by Germany (12%), France (6.7%), and Italy (6.1%). Together with Canada and other European and Asian markets, these countries account for nearly 80% of global coffee imports, reflecting coffee’s strong cultural and economic importance worldwide.
SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: U.S. TARIFFS ON BRAZIL
- THE 50% U.S. TARIFF ON BRAZILIAN COFFEE IMPORTS has tightened global supply, as Brazil, the world’s largest producer, accounts for more than one-third of total output. Exports to the U.S. fell by nearly 46% year over year, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources in Colombia, Central America, and Asia.
DEMAND CONTINUED TO RISE
- GLOBAL DEMAND FOR COFFEE CONTINUES TO RISE, PARTICULARLY IN EMERGING MARKETS LIKE CHINA AND INDIA, where coffee culture is expanding. This growing consumption puts additional pressure on an already constrained supply.
EVENTS:
- EARLY NOVEMBER: INTERNATIONAL COFFEE ORGANIZATION (ICO) MONTHLY COFFEE MARKET REPORT. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on October 6 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Aug) rose +0.2% annually to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate exports and supplies. Its next monthly report is expected to be released in early November of 2025.
- DECEMBER 18: US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) GLOBAL COFFEE REPORT. The report is issued twice a year, once in June and once in December. In June, the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% annually to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. The report forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% annually to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% annually to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- PRICE ACTION: COFFEE PRICES HAVE RISEN BY AROUND 42% IN 2025. Coffee prices continued to trade in an uptrend as they managed to hit a fresh all-time high of $437.60 in late October.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 - November 2025
Chart Source: BARCHART
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
COFFEE, November 4, 2025.
Current Price: 410
|
COFFEE |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
500 |
|
|
465 |
|
|
438 |
|
|
385 |
|
|
377 |
|
|
370 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
COFFEE |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
90,000 |
55,000 |
28,000 |
-25,000 |
-33,000 |
-40,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
78,247 |
47,818 |
24,344 |
-21,735 |
-28,691 |
-34,777 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
68,849 |
42,075 |
21,420 |
-19,125 |
-25,245 |
-30,600 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
126,632 |
77,386 |
39,397 |
-35,176 |
-46,432 |
-56,281 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:15 (GMT) 04/11/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.