GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- US PRESIDENTAL DEBATE: DONALD TRUMP VS. KAMALA HARRIS (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 02:00 GMT+1). According to the Economic Times, as the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, the competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains tight and highly competitive. According to the Economic Times, as of September 2, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out former President Donald Trump in several key polls. According to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted between August 23-27, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters. The Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today polls similarly show Harris ahead, with respective percentages of 48%, 49%, and 48%. In contrast, Trump stands at 47%, 48%, and 43% in these polls.
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 AT 15:00 GMT+1: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (AUGUST). The data for July showed quite worrisome figures, pointing to a potential recession. In fact, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.8, which was the lowest since late 2023. This was lower than expected 48.8, and previous 48.5.
- FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (AUGUST). The US labour market has seen some weakness over the past few months as the unemployment rate managed to rise to its highest since late 2021 (4.3%). This is creating a headache to the US Federal Reserve ahead of the September meeting and this week’s data could give better clues whether the Fed could be more aggressive in cutting interest rates in the next few months.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
- BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE DECISION (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 AT 14:45 GMT+1). The Bank of Canada is expected to keep cutting its rates. In September, the bank is expected to slash rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% from the current 4.50%. This would be its third cut in 2024.
- EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATE DECISION (THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 AT 13:15 GMT+1). The European Central Bank is expected to cut its rates, too. In September, the bank is expected to slash rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% from the current 4.25%. This would be its second cut in 2024.
- FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION (WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 AT 19:00 GMT+1). The most recent economic turmoil in the US raised chances that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, another 50 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December 2024. All in all, that could reduce interest rates from the current 5.5% (the highest in over 20 years) to 4.50%.
- BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE DECISION (THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19 AT 12:00 GMT+1). The Bank of England is expected to keep cutting its rates, too. In September, the bank is expected to slash rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% from the current 5.00%. This would be its second cut in 2024.
ANALYST OPINION:
- Citigroup targets $3,000; Bank of America targets $3,000; Goldmans Sachs targets $2,700; JPMorgan targets $2,600; Morgan Stanley targets $2,650.
GOLD, September 2, 2024
Current Price: 2495
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3000 |
|
|
2700 |
|
|
2550 |
|
|
2450 |
|
|
2435 |
|
|
2420 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
50,500 |
20,500 |
5,500 |
-4,500 |
-6,000 |
-7,500 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
45,622 |
18,520 |
4,969 |
-4,065 |
-5,420 |
-6,775 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
38,442 |
15,605 |
4,187 |
-3,425 |
-4,567 |
-5,709 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
68,112 |
27,650 |
7,418 |
-6,069 |
-8,093 |
-10,116 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:40 (GMT+1) 02/09/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.