Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- LONG-TERM UPTREND SINCE APRIL 2025: As shown in the daily chart below, palladium has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising diagonal trend line (orange) since April 2025. However, the price could decline.
- SUPPORT AREA: $1100 - $1050. Palladium prices have maintained a strong support zone between $1050 and $1100. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1200, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 184%. Although the price could decline as well.
- PALLADIUM PRICE ABOVE 20-,50-, AND 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGE: Palladium price has remained above its 20-, 50- and 100– day moving averages, indicating a potential uptrend. The trend could reverse if Palladium price goes below these averages.
GRAPH (Daily): February 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS RISE BETWEEN THE USA AND RUSSIA
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 9): EU AND US OFFICIALS MET IN WASHINGTON ON RUSSIA SANCTIONS; US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ASKED THE E.U. TO IMPOSE 100% TARIFFS ON INDIA AND CHINA TO PRESSURE RUSSIA. U.S. President Donald Trump and EU officials met in Washington to coordinate new sanctions on Russia, including possible tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil such as China and India. The EU is also preparing its 19th sanctions package, while Trump confirmed a ‘second phase’ of U.S. measures is underway.
RUSSIAN IMPACT ON GLOBAL PALLADIUM MARKET SHARE:
- RUSSIA IS THE LARGEST PRODUCER IN THE WORLD
- ~43% OF TOTAL GLOBAL SUPPLY.
- RUSSIA IS THE LARGEST EXPORTER IN THE WORLD
- ~23% OF TOTAL GLOBAL EXPORTS.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INFLATION (CPI) (AUGUST). A lower than expected inflation reading could increase the odds of higher interest rate cuts by the FED in September or increase the odds of more interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. This index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The inflation rate for the previous month came in at 2.7%.
- MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15 AT 3:00 GMT+1: CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA (AUGUST): Stronger-than-expected industrial production in China would boost optimism for palladium demand. As the world’s top consumer, robust factory activity signals resilient consumption and supports the case for higher prices.
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. Weaker August labor data, yearly downward labor data revision, and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole have raised market expectations for a September rate cut. With the benchmark rate at 4.5% and projected to fall to 4% by end-2025, the U.S. dollar may face pressure, potentially supporting palladium prices.
Palladium, September 11, 2025.
Current Price: 1,200
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1,450 |
|
|
1,350 |
|
|
1,270 |
|
|
1,150 |
|
|
1,125 |
|
|
1,100 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
PALLADIUM |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
25,000 |
15,000 |
7,000 |
-5,000 |
-7,500 |
-10,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
21,384 |
12,830 |
5,988 |
-4,277 |
-6,415 |
-8,554 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
18,506 |
11,104 |
5,182 |
-3,701 |
-5,552 |
-7,402 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
34,701 |
20,820 |
9,716 |
-6,940 |
-10,410 |
-13,880 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 8:30 (GMT+1) 11/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.