Taiwan Semiconductor (#TAIWANSM) Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
CHIP INDUSTRY
- MARKET POTENTIAL: The global semiconductor market was valued at $520 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach a value of $1.0 to 1.3 trillion by 2030. This is an increase of around 92% to 150% in total, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 8.9% to 11.9%.
- TAIWAN MARKET SHARE (2024): According to Statista.com, Taiwan Semiconductor market share was 61.7% in 2024, followed by Samsung (11%).
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR: THE COMPANY
- Taiwan Semiconductor is a global leader in semiconductor fabrication and makes the vast majority of the world’s leading-edge logic chips, used in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. Its focus on areas such as artificial intelligence and automotive technology positions the company as a strategic partner for innovative companies seeking cutting-edge solutions.
- DEPENDENCE OF LARGE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES: Nvidia is one of Taiwan Semiconductor´s main customers. Of Taiwan Semiconductor revenues, about 10% are contributed by Nvidia, 25% by Apple, 6.5% by Broadcom, 6.5% by Qualcomm, 5.5% by AMD. In other words, more than 50% of Taiwan Semiconductor´s sales come from large and well-known customers (Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and Qualcomm).
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR: NEWS AND EVENTS
- EVENT (THURSDAY, JANUARY 16, PREMARKET): Q4 EARNINGS REPORT. Taiwan Semiconductor beat expectations with an EPS of $2.24 versus the $2.18 forecast and revenue of $26.88 billion versus $26.33 billion expected. Net profit rose 57% to a record level, driven by strong demand for semiconductors used in AI processing, while margins remained solid with a gross margin of 59%, operating margin of 49%, and net profit margin of 43.1%. Advanced technologies contributed significantly to wafer revenue, with 3nm processes accounting for 26%, 5nm for 34%, and 7nm for 14%, totaling 74% of wafer revenue from technologies 7nm or newer.
- NEWS (JANUARY 21): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP PRESENTED THE “STARGATE”, A $500 BILLION A.I. INVESTMENT THAT TEAMS UP ORACLE, OPENAI AND SOFTBANK. Three top tech firms announced that they will create a new company, called Stargate, to grow artificial intelligence infrastructure in the United States. Donald Trump called it the “largest AI infrastructure project in history.” The companies will invest $100 billion in the project to start, with plans to pour up to $500 billion into Stargate in the coming years. Stargate will build “the physical and virtual infrastructure to power the next generation of AI,” including data centers around the country.
- NEWS (JANUARY 7): DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCES $20 BILLION FOREIGN INVESTMENTS TO BUILD NEW U.S. DATA CENTERS. President-elect Donald Trump announced a $20 billion foreign investment to build new data centers in the United States. Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani, a Trump associate and founder of the property development company DAMAC Properties, is pledging the money, Trump said.
STOCK PRICE ACTION:
- ANALYST OPINION: Morningstar forecasts $273. Sequehanna forecasts $265. Goldman Sachs forecasts $259.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: Taiwan Semiconductor stock hit an all-time high of $225.27 on January 24, 2025. The current price stands at $200. If the Goldmans Sachs forecast ($259) is realized, this would provide an upside potential of around 30%. However, it could also decline.
#TAIWANSM, January 27, 2025
Current Price: 200
TAIWANSM |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
270 |
|
240 |
|
220 |
|
185 |
|
180 |
|
175 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
TAIWANSM |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
70,000 |
40,000 |
20,000 |
-15,000 |
-20,000 |
-25,000 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
66,696 |
38,112 |
19,056 |
-14,292 |
-19,056 |
-23,820 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
56,019 |
32,011 |
16,005 |
-12,004 |
-16,005 |
-20,007 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
100,514 |
57,437 |
28,718 |
-21,539 |
-28,718 |
-35,898 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:15 (GMT) 27/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.