Wheat Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET SHARE:
- LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCERS (OF TOTAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED IN 2024/2025: 793.24 MILLION TONES): China at 17%, the European Union at ~17%, India at ~14%, Russia at ~12%, USA at ~6%, and Ukraine at ~3%.
- LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTERS OF A TOTAL 212.31 MILLION TONS (2024/2025): Russia at 22.62%, the European Union at 14.13%, Canada at 12.25%, Australia at 11.78%, the USA at 10.58%, and Ukraine at 7.54%.
- RUSSIA + UKRAINE SHARE at ~30%: Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of total global exports.
IMPACT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR:
The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly disrupted the global wheat market, as both countries together account for over 30% of global wheat exports. Key effects include:
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ukraine’s wheat production and exports declined due to damaged infrastructure, blocked ports, and trade restrictions, while Russia’s export taxes and quotas further tightened global supply.
- PRICE VOLATILITY: Wheat prices surged to record highs in 2022, due to concerns over supply shortages. Food inflation increased globally, particularly in wheat-dependent countries in Africa and the Middle East.
- TRADE ROUTE BLOCKADES: The closure of Black Sea ports forced Ukraine to rely on alternative, less efficient land routes, further increasing costs and logistical challenges.
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK:
- NEWS (THURSDAY, JULY 30): US PRESIDENT TRUMP CONFIRMED THE NEW DEADLINE PERIOD FOR RUSSIA TO REACH A CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH UKRAINE (10 DAYS). U.S. President Donald Trump set a new deadline of 10 days (down from the previous 50-day deadline set on July 14) for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face consequences. Trump has threatened sanctions on both Russia and importers of its goods unless progress is made. Trump reiterated that, without a deal, his administration would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries continuing to import Russian products, including wheat.
- NEWS (WEDNESDAY, JULY 23): RUSSIA-UKRAINE TALKS IN TURKEY DELIVER NO CEASEFIRE DEALS. According to CNN, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner swap during their third set of direct talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, but appeared to make little progress on ceasefire terms or a possible summit between their presidents, with their meeting ending after less than an hour.
NO DIRECT MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENTS AGREED: Speaking after Wednesday’s meeting, Ukraine’s former defense minister Rustem Umerov – who led Kyiv’s delegation – said he had proposed a summit by the end of August between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin and suggested the “participation of (US) President Trump and (Turkish President Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan will be most valuable”. However, Russia’s delegate Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister and now a senior Putin aide, said such a meeting would be appropriate only to sign an agreement, Reuters reported. They have met on May 16 and June 2, but have failed to reach a ceasefire deal.
- ONGOING SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: With no resolution, Ukrainian wheat exports remain limited, supporting elevated risk premiums and supply concerns in global wheat markets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $520: Since March 2023, Wheat has been predominantly trading above the mark of $520. Wheat has tested the area around $520 five times since March 2023, and every time it would recover to levels toward 600 or above. This is the sixth time in the past two years that Wheat prices have tested levels near $520. (Source: Fortrade Meta Trader 4 Platform).
- 4–YEAR AVERAGE DAILY PRICE (JULY 30, 2021 – JULY 30, 2025): $691.61. The Wheat’s average price in the period between July 30, 2021, and July 30, 2025, which includes the Russia-Ukraine war, has been around $692. (Data Source: Meta Trader 4)
- WHEAT PRICES HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $1356.50 (MARCH 2022). Wheat was trading last near $520, and if a full recovery to 2022’s all-time high occurs, this could provide an upside of around 161%. Although prices could fall, too.
GRAPH (Weekly): March 2023 – July 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
WHEAT, July 31, 2025.
Current Price: 520
|
Wheat |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
580 |
|
|
560 |
|
|
540 |
|
|
505 |
|
|
495 |
|
|
490 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
WHEAT |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
6,000 |
4,000 |
2,000 |
-1,500 |
-2,500 |
-3,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
5,240 |
3,493 |
1,747 |
-1,310 |
-2,183 |
-2,620 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
4,532 |
3,021 |
1,511 |
-1,133 |
-1,888 |
-2,266 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
8,301 |
5,534 |
2,767 |
-2,075 |
-3,459 |
-4,151 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT+1) 31/07/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.