Alibaba (#ALIBABA) weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
E-COMMERCE: THE INDUSTRY
- THE GLOBAL E-COMMERCE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL $6.3 TRILLIONS IN 2024. The global e-commerce market is expected to be worth $6.3 trillion this year, up from $5.8 trillion in 2023. This presents new possibilities for businesses to tap into new demographics and expand beyond local markets.
- E-COMMERCE SALES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW 8.8% IN 2024. This growth highlights the increasing consumer preference for online shopping. Businesses that embrace this trend now will be better equipped to thrive in a market that is rapidly moving away from traditional in-store shopping experiences.
- BY 2027, 23% OF RETAIL PURCHASES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ONLINE. By 2027, nearly a quarter of all retail purchases are projected to occur online, with the e-commerce market projected to surpass $7.9 trillion.
ALIBABA: THE COMPANY
- ALIBABA IS ONE OF THE LARGEST E-COMMERCE IN THE WORLD:
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COUNTRY) China is estimated to claim 52.1% of the global market, USA with 20.1%, UK with 3.4% and Japan with 3.3%. Rest of the world covers 21.1%.
E-COMMERCE MARKET SHARE (COMPANY) Alibaba (Taobao and Tmall) claimed 24.00%, while Amazon took up 13% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
ALIBABA: NEWS AND EVENTS
- NEWS (FRIDAY, AUGUST 30): ALIBABA COMPLETES THREE-YEAR REGULATORY. Alibaba has completed a three-year regulatory "rectification" process following an antitrust fine it received for monopolistic practices in 2021, China's market regulator said on Friday. This news should boost investor confidence in Alibaba.
- EVENT (EXPECTED - MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9): ALIBABA UPGRADES HONG KONG LISTING TO PRIMARY STATUS. Alibaba announced it will upgrade its Hong Kong listing to primary status, allowing participation in the 'Stock Connect' program. According to Morgan Stanley, this move could attract up to $12 billion from the 220 million investors on mainland China's stock market within six months.
- ALIBABA IS INCREASING THE PACE OF SHARE BUYBACK: Alibaba says it spent $5.8 billion dollars on share buybacks in Q2 of 2024. This brings the total to $15.2 billion in the last 1 year. Alibaba still has over $26 billion left in its current buyback plan.
ALIBABA: PRICE ACTION
- ALIBABA IS ACTUALLY TRADING AT $83 DESPITE REVENUE JUMP. Since August 2016, Alibaba’s revenue has surged by 520%, increasing from $5 billion in 2016 to $31 billion in 2024. However, its stock price has remained unchanged at $83.
- STOCK PRICE ACTION: THE STOCK HAS FALLEN BY ABOUT 74% FROM IT'S ALL-TIME HIGH OF $319. Alibaba was last trading around $83, and if a full recovery follows to all-time highs, the stock could see an upside of around ~284%. However, the price could go lower.
- ANALYSTS OPINIONS: Goldman Sachs forecasts $108. JPMorgan forecasts $108. HSBC forecasts $112. Citigroup forecasts $116. Deutsche Bank forecasts $125
#ALIBABA, September 3, 2024
Current Price: 83
|
Alibaba |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
120 |
|
|
100 |
|
|
90 |
|
|
77 |
|
|
75 |
|
|
72 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Alibaba |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
37,000.00 |
17,000.00 |
7,000.00 |
-6,000.00 |
-8,000.00 |
-11,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
33,524.59 |
15,403.19 |
6,342.49 |
-5,436.42 |
-7,248.56 |
-9,966.77 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
28,220.64 |
12,966.24 |
5,339.04 |
-4,576.32 |
-6,101.76 |
-8,389.92 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
50,035.16 |
22,989.13 |
9,466.11 |
-8,113.81 |
-10,818.41 |
-14,875.32 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:20 (GMT+1) 03/09/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.