Gold Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- ISRAEL INVADES RAFAH, FURTHER ESCALATING THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE-EAST: Israel has invaded Rafah, in what is largely viewed as a further escalation. The risk of a wider war continues to increase, which could create further geopolitical instability and may disrupt the global economy. This could continue to drive gold demand further.
- GOLD PRICES HAVE SHARPLY APPRECIATED SINCE EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAVE ESCALATED: Since tensions in the Middle East have begun, gold prices have moved sharply higher, with each iteration of escalation causing gold prices to move higher.
GOLD |
|||
PERIOD |
NEWS |
PRICE CHANGE % |
PRICE CHANGE $ |
OCTOBER 7, 2023 - DECEMBER 3, 2023 |
WAR STARTS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND IRAN- BACKED HAMAS |
17.01% |
$ 311.18 |
FEBRUARY 14, 2024 - MARCH 8, 2024 |
ESCALATION AS ISRAEL PREPARES A PLAN TO INVADE RAFAH |
10.24% |
$ 203.93 |
APRIL 1, 2024 - APRIL 12, 2024 |
ISRAEL - IRAN WAR CONFLICT WITH STATE-TO-STATE ATTACKS |
8.89% |
$ 198.53 |
NEWS SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
PRICE DATA SOURCE: META TRADER 4 PLATFORM
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
EVENTS:
- US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 12th, 2024): The Federal Reserve Bank will meet on June 12th to set the Fed Funds rate target. According to the most recent estimates, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at the current level of 5.50%. However, with inflation falling in April, the Federal reserve may reconsider its current rate policy, and could look to implement cuts sooner, which could drive gold prices higher.
ANALYST OPINION
- CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE THEIR STRONG GOLD BUYING, WITH Q1 BUYING THE STRONGEST ON ANY YEAR ON RECORD: According to the World Gold Council, Q1 gold buying recorded 290t, the highest Q1 buying rate in history. The World Gold Council expects demand to remain robust in 2024.
- UBS: GOLD COULD REACH THE MARK OF $4000. UBS predicts that the price of gold may nearly double from now to 4,000 US dollars/ounce, and believes that it is not too late to participate in this round of gold rebound.
- CITIGROUP: GOLD COULD HIT $3000 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS. Gold could rise 50% if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession. However, the price could also decline further. Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing bullion buying.
- BANK OF AMERICA: TARGETS $3000. Bank of America still sees owning gold as one of its top trades for 2024. Central banks are buying at an unprecedented pace, purchasing more than 2,100 tons in the past two years, thus creating strong demand.
GOLD, May 16, 2024
Current Price: 2385
GOLD |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
3000 |
|
2600 |
|
2440 |
|
2330 |
|
2310 |
|
2300 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot
Gold |
||||||
|
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
61,500.00 |
21,500.00 |
5,500.00 |
-5,500.00 |
-7,500.00 |
-8,500.00 |
Profit or loss in €² |
56,587.37 |
19,782.58 |
5,060.66 |
-5,060.66 |
-6,900.90 |
-7,821.02 |
Profit or loss in £² |
48,529.13 |
16,965.47 |
4,340.00 |
-4,340.00 |
-5,918.19 |
-6,707.28 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
83,784.53 |
29,290.53 |
7,492.93 |
-7,492.93 |
-10,217.63 |
-11,579.98 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:20 (GMT+1) 16/05/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.