Amazon (#AMAZON) weekly special report based On 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL E-COMMERCE:
- MARKETS SIZE (EXPECTED: OVER $7.3 TRILLION IN 2025, UP 30% FROM 2022): The global e-commerce market is forecast to be over $7.3 trillion in 2025, compared to 2021’s $4.921 trillion. E-commerce worldwide could be expected to represent 24.5% of all global sales In 2025, up from 19.6% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2020.
- MARKET SHARE BY COMPANY AND BY SALES: Amazon accounts for 13% and Alibaba 24% of the global e- commerce market. JD.com claimed 9.20% of the market.
US E-COMMERCE:
- MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL (TO INCREASE BY 2025 TO $2.05 FROM CURRENT $1.4 TRILLION): U.S. e-commerce value could be expected to grow at a strong average growth rate (annually) of 10% between 2023 and 2025 to reach US$2.05 trillion in 2025. That would be 28% of estimated global e- commerce sales of $7.3 trillion in 2025.
- MARKET SHARE: Amazon is the largest online retailer in the US with 37.8% market share. Walmart is second capturing 6.3%, while Apple and eBay cover 3.9% and 3.5% respectively. Amazon Web Services dominate the cloud markets with 34% market share, ahead of Microsoft Azure (24%), Google Cloud (10%) and Alibaba Cloud (5%). The Cloud industry could be expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate at 17.9% until 2028, to $791.49B, with Amazon Web Services set to maintain dominance. If Amazon Web Services maintains its 34% market share, it could generate $269B revenue per year from 2028.
AMAZON (ANALYSIS AND EVENTS)
- EVENT (OCTOBER 10-11): PRIME DAY. Amazon Prime Day is a 48-hour sale event featuring discounts on thousands of items exclusively for Prime members. It started in 2015 and has since become an annual two-day sale. This year's October event will be the second one this year. The July event was the biggest Prime Day ever, as Prime members worldwide purchased more than 375 million items.
DATE |
PRICE CHANGE ONE WEEK PRIOR THE EVENT |
7/15/2015 |
6.29% |
7/12/2016 |
5.49% |
7/11/2017 |
1.31% |
7/16/2018 |
7.43% |
7/15/2019 |
4.81% |
10/13/2020 |
10.24% |
6/21/2021 |
3.79% |
7/12/2022 |
5.52% |
7/13/2022 |
1.61% |
AVERAGE |
5.17% |
Source: MT4
* Please note that past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Since the Prime Day event started in 2015, Amazon share price tends to rise a week prior to the event. On average shares price was up 5.17%.
- EVENT (OCTOBER 27, ESTIMATED): Q3 EARNINGS. Second quarter results showed Net sales increased 11% to $134.4B and the stock price jumped nearly 10% in afterhours trading. The company forecast current-quarter net sales in the range of $138 billion to $143 billion.
- AMAZON WILL INVEST UP TO $4BN IN SAN FRANCISCO BASED AI FIRM ANTROPIC SIMILAR LIKE EARLIER TIE-UP BETWEEN MICROSOFT AND OPENAI. Amazon recently said it would use AI to boost its Alexa voice assistant's conversational powers. Anthropic has its own ChatGPT rival called Claude.
- AMAZON BEDROCK: A SERVICE TO BUILD GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) APPLICATIONS ON AMAZON’S CLOUD COMPUTING PLATFORM. According to The Motley Fool, with Bedrock, Amazon is providing developers access to the tools and computing power needed to build their own generative AI applications.
PRICE ACTION
- AMAZON STOCK TRADES AROUND 33% BELOW ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $188.65 (September 30, 2021). The stock currently trades around $126.9 and If a full recovery follows, the stock could increase around 49%. However, the price could decline further.
- ANALYST OPINION: Morgan Stanley targets $175. Wedbush’s price target is $180. Jefferies is targeting $175. Needham is targeting $160.
(#AMAZON) October 2, 2023
Current Price:126.90
Amazon |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
175.00 |
|
155.00 |
|
139.00 |
|
115.00 |
|
108.00 |
|
103.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Amazon |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
4,810.00 |
2,810.00 |
1,210.00 |
-1,190.00 |
-1,890.00 |
-2,390.00 |
Profit or loss in €² |
4,545.24 |
2,655.33 |
1,143.40 |
-1,124.50 |
-1,785.97 |
-2,258.45 |
Profit or loss in £² |
3,938.99 |
2,301.16 |
990.89 |
-974.51 |
-1,547.75 |
-1,957.21 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
6,526.93 |
3,813.03 |
1,641.91 |
-1,614.77 |
-2,564.64 |
-3,243.11 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:25 (GMT+1) 10/02/2022
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