COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GLOBAL COCOA MARKET:
- Cocoa is a versatile ingredient used worldwide in confectionery. From chocolate bars to baked goods, cocoa enriches flavor and texture. It also contains antioxidants, potentially providing health benefits. Additionally, cocoa cultivation supports millions of farmers globally.
- Total world cocoa production remains relatively small, at about 5 million tonnes annually. (Source: Statista)
- Despite its modest production volume, cocoa commands a high value in international trade due to its expensive nature compared to other agricultural commodities.
- The Global Cocoa Market size is expected to reach $38.3 billion by 2030, rising at a market growth of 4.8% CAGR during the forecast period. (Source: International Cocoa Organization)
KEY FUNDAMENTALS:
- TOP COCOA PRODUCERS (tonnes): 1. Ivory Coast - 2.200m, 2. Ghana - 1.100m, 3. Indonesia - 0.667m, 4. Ecuador - 0.337m, 5. Cameroon - 0.300m
- SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS: Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce over 60% of the world's cocoa, are facing severe harvest problems.
- The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025.
- Issues such as black pod disease, swollen shoot virus, and aging trees have impacted cocoa yields, exacerbated by heavy rains and El Niño weather conditions.
- CONSUMER TRENDS:
- Traditional consumer markets for cocoa include Europe, North America, and South America, where consumption has shown stagnation in recent years.
- However, the market is experiencing growth driven by rising consumption in Asia, reflecting changing consumer preferences and increasing demand in emerging economies.
NEWS AND EVENTS:
- INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REPORT – MARCH 2024 RELEASED APRIL 18th 2024: The ICCO Monthly Cocoa Market Report showed a notable drop in cocoa production from key producers Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, fueling continuous price hikes. Prices soared by 47% in London and 44% in New York over March. Ghana's structural deficits contributed to ongoing supply challenges, while Côte d’Ivoire's production shortfall seems temporary despite concerns about cocoa tree infections.
- EVENT: INTERNATIONAL COCOA ORGANIZATION (ICCO) MONTHLY COCOA MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2024 (EXPECTED - MAY 20 - 30): The ICCO Monthly Cocoa Market Report is a publication by the International Cocoa Organization, providing updates and analysis on the global cocoa market, including production, consumption, trade volumes, trends, prices, and forecasts. It's a key resource for industry stakeholders to monitor market dynamics and make informed decisions. Forecasts in this report could impact the price of Cocoa.
PRICE ACTION AND VOLATILITY
PRICE ACTION: Cocoa price exhibit high volatility, experiencing significant fluctuations over short periods. Cocoa is currently trading at 7,900. It recently posted an all-time high of 11,707 (April 19th, 2024). Cocoa price have gone up ~91% since the beginning of 2024. However, the price could also decline further.
COCOA (#COCOA) April 30, 2024
Current Price: 7,900.00
|
Cocoa |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
14,000.00 |
|
|
11,700.00 |
|
|
9,500.00 |
|
|
6,400.00 |
|
|
6,250.00 |
|
|
6,000.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
|
Cocoa |
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
61,000.00 |
38,000.00 |
16,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
-16,500.00 |
-19,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
56,888.92 |
35,439.00 |
14,921.68 |
-13,989.08 |
-15,387.99 |
-17,719.50 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
48,631.54 |
30,295.06 |
12,755.81 |
-11,958.58 |
-13,154.43 |
-15,147.53 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
83,480.33 |
52,004.14 |
21,896.48 |
-20,527.95 |
-22,580.75 |
-26,002.07 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:20 (GMT+1) 30/04/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail