COCOA (#COCOA)

COCOA (#COCOA) Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• DAILY MOVING AVERAGES POINT TO AN UPTREND: Cocoa prices have managed to stay above the 50- Day Moving Averages, pointing to an ongoing mid-term uptrend. However, cocoa prices can also change their trend, if prices fall below the 20- and 50- Day Moving Averages.
• MID – TERM UPTREND CHANNEL: As depicted by the daily chart below, the cocoa price has kept trading above the mid-term blue- lined uptrend channel, confirming its mid-term trend is up.
• ALL- TIME HIGH (DECEMBER 18, 2024): 12,911. Cocoa last traded around 9,160 and If the cocoa price tries to recover to its recent all-time high of 12,911, it can then offer an upside of around 41%, Although, prices can fall, too.

GRAPH (DAILY): SEPTEMBER 2024 - JUNE 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

STATISTICS: ROLLOVER

• ROLLOVER: DEFINITION. According to the Investopedia.com, market participants roll over futures contracts to switch from the front month contract that is close to expiration to another contract in a further-out month.
• EXAMPLE (JUNE 8): Rollover from the contract that expires in July to the contract that expires in September took place on June 8, 2025.
• EVENT (JUNE 8): FUTURES CONTRACT ROLLOVER. On June 8, due to a contract rollover, the cocoa process opened down lower initially by $840, creating a negative price gap on the daily chart as depicted above.
• RECENT HISTORY (JUNE 9, 2024 – JUNE 8, 2025): 5 CONTRACT ROLLOVERS HAVE OCCURRED. In the period between June 2024 and June 2025, the cocoa market has seen 5 contract rollovers in total.
• STATISTICS (JUNE 9, 2024 – JUNE 8, 2025): CONTRACT ROLLOVER GAPS TO ALWAYS CLOSE UP. The period between June 2024 and June 2025 has seen 5 rollover gaps, with an average price gap of 562 dollars. According to the MetaTrader 4 Platform, cocoa would always fill up the gap.

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

SUPPLY SIDE:

• TOP PRODUCERS: The biggest producers are Ivory Coast (40% of world total), Ghana (20% of world total), Nigeria, and other small countries in Africa (10% of world total). All in all, West Africa produces around 70% of the world’s total. So, any problems that hit West Africa impact production on a massive scale.
• CHRONIC AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS IN WEST AFRICA: Various problems, such as El Nino warm weather (compounded by climate change), Black pod fungal disease, and the swollen shoot virus could cause supply disruptions and price spikes of cocoa. This problem was made even worse by the fact that farmers in these producer countries are relatively poor and don’t have access to modern agricultural methods to protect their crops.

DEMAND SIDE:

• TOP CONSUMERS: The biggest consumers of cocoa are developed countries (around 70% of the total demand for cocoa), but the demand for cocoa may increase, especially from emerging and developing countries like China and India. (China and India have cocoa consumption growth rates of around 20% and 10% respectively, which means that the market could double on average every 3,6 and 7,2 years).
• HIGHER DEMAND GROWTH RATE: The average growth rate for world cocoa demand could be projected at 4.7%.

COCOA (#COCOA) June 9, 2025
Current Price: 9,160

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT+1) 09/06/2025

There is a possibility to use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.