CFDs се комплексни инструменти и содржат висок ризик од брзо губење пари поради левериџ. 71% од ритеил инвеститорите губат пари кога тргуваат со CFDs со овој провајдер. Треба да размислите дали можете да си дозволите да преземете висок ризик од губење на вашите пари.
ЦФД (CFD) се комплексни инструменти и носат висок ризик од брзо губење пари како резултат на левериџ. 70.41% од сметките на клиентите-физички лица губат пари кога тргуваат со CFD. Потребно е да размислите околу сфаќањето на начинот на кој функционираат таквите договори и дали може да си дозволите да го преземете високиот ризик од губење на целиот ваш инвестиран капитал.
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COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2024: METALS AND ENERGY

Специјални извештаи - 03/01/2024

03 јануари, 2024

Наведениот пример користи Договори за разлика (CFD). Калкулациите се применуваат само за цените на одредени инструменти за наведениот датум и калкулациите претставуваат можна прилика за добивка или загуба. Нема гаранции за прецизноста и потполноста на овие информации, значи, секое лице кое доносува одлука според тие информации, тоа го прави целосно на сопствен ризик.

COMMODITY MARKETS IN 2024: METALS AND ENERGY

Date: January 3, 2024

TREND EXPECTATIONS: UP

  • CENTRAL BANKS’ MONETARY POLICY SHIFT: Lower Interest Rates Expected Across the Board

METALS: The commodity prices depend heavily on Central Banks’ interest rates. When interest rates fall in the US, the commodity prices denominated in US Dollars (Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Copper) become cheaper as lower interest rates push the value of the US dollar down. Cheaper prices, naturally, increase demand for the commodity, causing higher prices thereafter. Therefore, with lower interest rates in 2024, especially in the US, one could expect higher commodity prices in 2024.

  • GEOPOLITICAL RISKS RISE: Middle East Tensions, Ukraine- Russia Conflict, China- Taiwan Tensions, North Korea Nuclear Weapon Development

METALS AND ENERGY: The recent outbreak of the Israeli- HAMAS war and Yemen’s Houthis siding with Palestinians, caused heavy transportation problems via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, which are responsible for 12% of the global trade (including oil and natural gas). In addition to that, the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has no signs of ending in 2024, continued to keep investors nervous across the markets as both Ukraine and Russia are grand producers of commodities such as Palladium, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas etc. North Korea will continue to be a threat with its nuclear weapon development. China once again said they will not allow Taiwan to separate from mainland China, which increases the chances for an intervention. Geopolitical tensions increase demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver, but also other commodities as a warring environment causes scarcity fears.

  • PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE USA (November 5, 2024)

METALS: The US Presidential Election always brings worries to the world as political changes within the most powerful economy in the world may undergo changes that can impact the rest of the world. According to statistics since 2004, due to this kind of worries, Gold on average has seen an increase of 9.94% during the US presidential election year.

  • CHINA ONGOING ECONOMIC RECOVERY

METALS AND ENERGY: China is the largest Palladium, Platinum and Copper consumer in the world and the largest oil importer in the world. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by around 5.00% in 2024 after a similar GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate in 2023. China is expected to invest in more infrastructure projects in 2024, meaning that more commodities will rise in demand as China comes back economically.

  • GOLDMAN SACHS: THE BANK EXPECTS A MAIN COMMODITY INDEX TO RISE 21% IN 2024

METALS AND ENERGY: According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs, the second largest bank by revenue in the world, expects that a main commodity index (S&P GSCI Commodity Index), could gain 21% in 2024, supported by an increase in energy part by 31%, and an increase of 17.8% contributed by industrial metals. In metals, Goldman forecasts a sharp tightening in copper stocks into the middle of the decade (2025), driving up prices from the second half of 2024.

However, please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

SELECTED COMMODITY MARKET 2024

CRUDE OIL
Current Price: $69.20

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

CRUDE OIL

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

100.00

90.00

80.00

65.00

63.50

62.00

Profit or loss in $

30,800

20,800

10,800

-4,200

-5,700

-7,200

Profit or loss in €2

28,153

19,012

9,872

-3,839

-5,210

-6,581

Profit or loss in £2

24,385

16,468

8,551

-3,325

-4,513

-5,700

Profit or loss in C$2

41,049

27,721

14,394

-5,598

-7,597

-9,596

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1.000 units

GASOLINE
Current Price: $2.0800

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

GASOLINE

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

2.7000

2.5000

2.3000

1.9500

1.9200

1.8800

Profit or loss in $

62,000

42,000

22,000

-13,000

-16,000

-20,000

Profit or loss in €2

56,671

38,390

20,109

-11,883

-14,625

-18,281

Profit or loss in £2

49,088

33,253

17,418

-10,293

-12,668

-15,835

Profit or loss in C$2

82,631

55,976

29,321

-17,326

-21,324

-26,655

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units

NATURAL GAS
Current Price: $2.570

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

NATURAL GAS

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

4.200

3.600

3.200

2.300

2.150

2.000

Profit or loss in $

16,300

10,300

6,300

-2,700

-4,200

-5,700

Profit or loss in €2

14,899

9,415

5,759

-2,468

-3,839

-5,210

Profit or loss in £2

12,905

8,155

4,988

-2,138

-3,325

-4,513

Profit or loss in C$2

21,724

13,727

8,396

-3,598

-5,598

-7,597

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

METALS

GOLD
Current Price: $2050

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

GOLD

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

2,300

2,200

2,115

2,000

1,980

1,960

Profit or loss in $

25,000

15,000

6,500

-5,000

-7,000

-9,000

Profit or loss in €2

22,851

13,711

5,941

-4,570

-6,398

-8,226

Profit or loss in £2

19,793

11,876

5,146

-3,959

-5,542

-7,126

Profit or loss in C$2

33,319

19,991

8,663

-6,664

-9,329

-11,995

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

SILVER
Current Price: $23.300

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

SILVER

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

30.000

27.000

24.500

22.400

22.000

21.800

Profit or loss in $

67,000

37,000

12,000

-9,000

-13,000

-15,000

Profit or loss in €2

61,241

33,820

10,969

-8,226

-11,883

-13,711

Profit or loss in £2

53,046

29,294

9,501

-7,126

-10,293

-11,876

Profit or loss in C$2

89,295

49,312

15,993

-11,995

-17,326

-19,991

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

PALLADIUM
Current Price: $1,070

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

PALLADIUM

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

2,000

1,600

1,300

950

925

900

Profit or loss in $

93,000

53,000

23,000

-12,000

-14,500

-17,000

Profit or loss in €2

85,007

48,445

21,023

-10,969

-13,254

-15,539

Profit or loss in £2

73,631

41,962

18,210

-9,501

-11,480

-13,459

Profit or loss in C$2

123,947

70,636

30,653

-15,993

-19,325

-22,657

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

PLATINUM
Current Price: $985

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

PLATINUM

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

1350

1220

1100

900

840

800

Profit or loss in $

36,500

23,500

11,500

-8,500

-14,500

-18,500

Profit or loss in €2

33,363

21,480

10,512

-7,769

-13,254

-16,910

Profit or loss in £2

28,898

18,606

9,105

-6,730

-11,480

-14,647

Profit or loss in C$2

48,646

31,320

15,327

-11,328

-19,325

-24,656

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units

COPPER
Current Price: $3.8400

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

COPPER

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Levels

5.0000

4.5000

4.1000

3.6000

3.5000

3.4000

Profit or loss in $

11,600

6,600

2,600

-2,400

-3,400

-4,400

Profit or loss in €2

10,603

6,033

2,377

-2,194

-3,108

-4,022

Profit or loss in £2

9,184

5,225

2,059

-1,900

-2,692

-3,484

Profit or loss in C$2

15,460

8,796

3,465

-3,199

-4,531

-5,864

  1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:50 (GMT) 03/01/2023

Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
  • Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail

Fortrade Ltd is authorised and regulated in the UK by FCA under the licence number 609970.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. See full risk warning

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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs and margin FX are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. You do not own, or have any rights to, the underlying assets. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This information is intended to be general in nature and is not financial product advice. Any advice contained on this website or provided to you by Fort Securities Australia Pty Ltd is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of the information provided and the nature of the relevant financial product having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. We encourage you to obtain independent financial advice and consider our Financial Services Guide (FSG), Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Target Market Determination (TMD) to determine if this product is suitable for you before deciding to enter into or obtain any financial products issued by us.

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Risk warning   Privacy policy
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Fortrade Canada Limited is an Order Execution Only broker, and does not provide investment advice or recommendation. Fortrade is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Fortrade Canada Limited is authorised to provide CFD trading services in all provinces in Canada except Quebec. Residents of Alberta province are required to be Accredited Investors to trade CFDs.

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Fortrade Canada Limited is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Company registration number: BC1148613.
Click here to see Fortrade Canada Limited on the CIRO website.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70.41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Fortrade Cyprus Ltd is regulated and supervised by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) with CIF license number 385/20. CFD products may not be suitable for all clients, therefore ensure, that you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

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