Copper Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
SUPPLY SIDE:
- WORLD’S TOP COPPER PRODUCERS:
- Chile – about 23% of global output.
- Democratic Republic of Congo - 12% to 14% of global output.
- Peru – 11% to 12% of global output.
- China – around 7.5%.
- United States- around 4.6%.
- WORLD’S LARGEST MINES:
- Escondida (Chile): 8% of global supply.
- Grasberg (Indonesia): 6-7% of global supply.
- Collahuasi (Chile): 2-3% of global supply.
- Kamoa-Kakula (Democratic Republic of Congo): 2-3% of global supply.
- BREAKING NEWS (SEPTEMBER 24 - 25): SECOND LARGEST COPPER MINE IN THE WORLD IS NOW SHUT DOWN. Located in Indonesia and operated by the US company Freeport, Grasberg is the second-largest copper mine in the world. The mine is responsible for 6% to 7% of the total global supply. The mudrush accident in September has closed down around 70% of the total operating capacity of the Grasberg copper mine. Initial reports say it could take a while for the mine to come back online, with some of it not being able to recover by 2027.
DEMAND SIDE: CITIGROUP EXPECTS DEMAND TO SURGE WITH BOOMING AI INDUSTRY:
- BREAKING: CITIGROUP SEES COPPER AT $5.57 WITHIN A YEAR, DRIVEN BY AI EXPANSION. Citigroup reaffirmed its bullish stance on copper, setting a $5.57 per ounce target over the next 6–12 months, about 20% above current levels.
- COPPER USE IN AI INDUSTRY: Copper is essential in high-performance servers, advanced semiconductors, cooling systems, and the massive data centers that power AI models. Each large-scale data center requires tens of thousands of miles of copper wiring to ensure efficient power transmission and heat management.
- STRUCTURAL DEMAND DRIVERS: Citigroup highlighted copper’s unmatched conductivity as critical for AI growth. Beyond AI, the global energy transition—from EVs to renewable power grids—is also set to intensify copper consumption. With accelerating investment in AI infrastructure and supportive macro conditions, demand is expected to rise sharply, reinforcing the bullish case for higher prices (Source: Bloomberg).
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 2:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS (PMI) INDEX (SEPTEMBER): A stronger-than-expected PMI would support higher copper prices, as expanding Chinese manufacturing signals healthier industrial demand.
- FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER). A weaker-than-expected payroll report and a rising unemployment rate would underscore a softening U.S. labor market, raising expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. For copper, this could translate into stronger demand prospects and upward pressure on prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- UPTREND AND RECOVERY SINCE EARLY AUGUST 2025: Copper prices have traded within an uptrend channel since early August, as depicted by the daily chart below. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
- COPPER PRICE HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $5.9552 (July 24, 2025): The copper price currently trades around $4.86, and if a full recovery occurs, then copper prices could see an upside of around 22.50%. Although the price could decline, too.
GRAPH (Daily): May 2025 - September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
COPPER, September 25, 2025.
Current Price: 4.8600
COPPER |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
5.9552 |
|
5.5700 |
|
5.1500 |
|
4.6000 |
|
4.5000 |
|
4.3300 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
COPPER |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
10,952 |
7,100 |
2,900 |
-2,600 |
-3,600 |
-5,300 |
Profit or loss in €² |
9,325 |
6,045 |
2,469 |
-2,214 |
-3,065 |
-4,513 |
Profit or loss in £² |
8,141 |
5,277 |
2,156 |
-1,933 |
-2,676 |
-3,940 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
15,213 |
9,863 |
4,028 |
-3,612 |
-5,001 |
-7,362 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 8:30 (GMT+1) 25/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit