Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENT:
- CHINA GOLDEN WEEK (SEPTEMBER 29- OCTOBER 6) COULD BOOST JET FUEL DEMAND. More than 21 million people are expected to take flights in the space of eight days. Just domestically, there will be some 14,000 domestic flights a day, according to the regulator.
- OPEC+ JOINT MINISTERIAL MONITORING COMMITTEE (JMMC) MEETING (OCTOBER 4): The committee is expected to confirm current status of OPEC+ policy, which is oil production cuts into the year end. They could also confirm that due to ongoing cuts, lower supply in Q4 of 2023 could bring a deficit of more than 3 million barrels a day.
NEWS:
- RUSSIA EXTENDED EXPORTS CUTS OF 300,000 until the end of 2023. They will keep oil production cuts of 500,000 barrels per day until December 2024. UPDATE (SEPTEMBER 21): Russia banned gasoline and diesel exports in another sign of potentially tighter markets coming through.
- SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDED ITS CRUDE OIL OUTPUT CUT OF 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY UNTIL THE END OF 2023. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, extended earlier its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to September, which cuts originally started in July this year.
OIL MARKETS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO DEFICIT:
- OPEC+ TO BE CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.66 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023 AFTER SAUDI ARABIA PLEDGED AN ADDITIONAL 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY OF PRODUCTION CUTS IN 2023. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April. Those cuts will be extended until the end of 2024.
- OPEC OIL PRODUCTION AT THE LOWEST since 2019.
- CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.
- DEFICIT CREATION: FALLING SUPPLY AMID RISING DEMAND COULD CREATE A DEFICIT OF 3.3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q3 OF 2023. The above analyzed points show that demand could be expected to outpace supply, creating a hole that is known as deficit. According to OPEC, that deficit could be as much as 3.3 million barrels a day in Q4 of 2023, which is down from a 600,000 barrels a day surplus previously.
ANALYST OPINION:
- Goldman Sachs predicts $100. UBS forecasts $90-$100 a barrel. Bank of America forecasts oil at $100 a barrel. Standard Chartered forecasts $93. Citigroup said oil could first spike to $100. JPMorgan said prices could go above $100 if OPEC+ keeps cuts in place.
Crude Oil, September 28, 2023
Current Price:93.70
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
110.00 |
|
|
105.00 |
|
|
100.00 |
|
|
87.50 |
|
|
87.00 |
|
|
86.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
16,300.00 |
11,300.00 |
6,300.00 |
-6,200.00 |
-6,700.00 |
-7,700.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
15,523.81 |
10,761.90 |
6,000.00 |
-5,904.76 |
-6,380.95 |
-7,333.33 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
13,406.81 |
9,294.29 |
5,181.77 |
-5,099.52 |
-5,510.77 |
-6,333.28 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
22,018.20 |
15,264.15 |
8,510.10 |
-8,375.02 |
-9,050.43 |
-10,401.24 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 28/09/2023
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- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail