CFDs се комплексни инструменти и содржат висок ризик од брзо губење пари поради левериџ. 77% од ритеил инвеститорите губат пари кога тргуваат со CFDs со овој провајдер. Треба да размислите дали можете да си дозволите да преземете висок ризик од губење на вашите пари.
ЦФД (CFD) се комплексни инструменти и носат висок ризик од брзо губење пари како резултат на левериџ. 77% од сметките на клиентите-физички лица губат пари кога тргуваат со CFD. Треба да размислите дали можете да си дозволите да преземете голем ризик да ги изгубите парите.
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Crude Oil

Специјални извештаи - 27/11/2023

27 ноември, 2023

Наведениот пример користи Договори за разлика (CFD). Калкулациите се применуваат само за цените на одредени инструменти за наведениот датум и калкулациите претставуваат можна прилика за добивка или загуба. Нема гаранции за прецизноста и потполноста на овие информации, значи, секое лице кое доносува одлука според тие информации, тоа го прави целосно на сопствен ризик.

Crude Oil weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:

EVENTS:

  • NOVEMBER 30: OPEC+ MEETING. In 2024, OPEC sees demand rising by 2.25 million barrels a day. The group has been cutting production since late 2022 to support the market and its latest agreement calls for output curbs throughout 2024. EXPECTATIONS: As previously mentioned, the OPEC+ group led by Saudi Arabia is expected to extend their production cuts into 2024, with Saudi Arabia and Russia watched closely if they extend their voluntary cuts of around 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024. This is possible as oil prices failed to stay sustainably above $80 in the second half of the year.
  • SAUDI ARABIA’S FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE RANGES BETWEEN $80 AND $88 A BARREL. According to SPGLOBAL, Saudi Arabia needs a fiscal breakeven oil price ranging between $80 and $88 a barrel, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund, Institute of International Finance and Goldman Sachs. In addition to that, the same source, earlier this year said that Russia would need a $114 a barrel fiscal breakeven oil price. FISCAL BREAKEVEN PRICE DEFINITION: According to the CFR.ORG, an oil-exporting country’s “fiscal breakeven” oil price is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget. Oil prices below this level could result in budget deficits unless government policies change.
  • OPEC+ PRODUCTION CUTS TO PRODUCE AN OIL MARKET DEFICIT OF 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN Q4 OF 2023. According to some banks, including ING, ANZ and Goldman Sachs, the oil markets are still expected to be in deficit in Q4 2023, and with extended OPEC+ cuts into 2024, these deficits may be prolonged into the period ahead.

CURRENT SITUATION AND OIL MARKET DEFICIT DEVELOPMENT:

  • OPEC+ IS CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION BY 4.9 MILLION BARRELS A DAY IN 2023. OPEC+ had in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April this year. Those cuts were joined by Saudi and Russia voluntary cuts of around 1.3 million barrels a day to make in total 4.9 million barrels a day of oil production cuts.
  • RUSSIA EXTENDED CUTS OF 300,000 until the end of 2023.
  • SAUDI ARABIA EXTENDED ITS CRUDE OIL OUTPUT CUT OF 1 MILLION BARRELS A DAY UNTIL THE END OF 2023. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, extended earlier its voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day, which cuts originally started in July this year.
  • CHINA’S ECONOMY TO RECOVER BETTER IN Q3 AND Q4 WITH SURGING OIL DEMAND. Due to additional stimulus packages in China, economists expect the Chinese economy to recover at quicker pace in the second half of the year that started in July.

MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS TO KEEP MARKETS NERVOUS

  • ISRAELI GROUND OFFENSIVE INTO GAZA REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER ISRAEL DECLARED WAR ON HAMAS: The Middle East region, rich of oil, and responsible for something between 20% and 30% of global oil supply, has been recently shaken up by the October’s Iran- backed Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel declaring officially war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Although expectations for broader escalation has gone down in recent days, still historically seen, given the fragility of the region, potential escalation cannot be completely ruled out. Oil investors will keep their eyes on that part of the world, keeping oil prices volatile in the period to come.

TECHNICAL REVIEW:

  • STATISTICS: CRUDE OIL HAS TESTED THE RANGE OF $62- $70 EIGHT TIMES SINCE FEBRUARY 2021. After testing the region, Crude oil would come back up above the mark of $70, to target the $80- $90 range.

Graph (Weekly): Crude Oil (February 2021- November 2023)

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Crude Oil, November 27, 2023
Current Price: 73.5

Crude Oil

Weekly

Trend direction

UP

Resistance 3

90

Resistance 2

85

Resistance 1

80

Support 1

67

Support 2

66

Support 3

65

Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1

Crude Oil

Pivot Points

Resistance 3

Resistance 2

Resistance 1

Support 1

Support 2

Support 3

Profit or loss in $

16,500.00

11,500.00

6,500.00

-6,500.00

-7,500.00

-8,500.00

Profit or loss in €2

15,071.38

10,504.30

5,937.21

-5,937.21

-6,850.63

-7,764.05

Profit or loss in £2

13,085.58

9,120.25

5,154.93

-5,154.93

-5,947.99

-6,741.06

Profit or loss in C$2

22,529.60

15,702.45

8,875.30

-8,875.30

-10,240.73

-11,606.16

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 27/11/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.

  • You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
  • Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more detail
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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. See full risk warning

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Risk warning   Privacy policy
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. These products may not be suitable for all clients therefore ensure you understand the risks and seek independent advice. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Fortrade Canada Limited is an Order Execution Only broker, and does not provide investment advice or recommendation. Fortrade is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Fortrade Canada Limited is authorised to provide CFD trading services in all provinces in Canada except Quebec. Residents of Alberta province are required to be Accredited Investors to trade CFDs.

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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex and highly speculative instruments, which come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing all your invested capital. Be Aware: You can lose all, but not more than the balance of your Trading Account. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. These products may not be suitable for all clients, therefore ensure, that you understand the risks and seek independent advice. Should you proceed with investment in CFDs on virtual currencies, please note, that the values are highly volatile and may result in a significant loss for a short period of time. This material does not constitute an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Fortrade accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of the information and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The information on this site is not directed at residents of the United States or Belgium and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

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Risk Warning and Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Be aware, as a retail client you can lose all, but not more than the balance of your trading account due to Fortrade’s negative balance protection.

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