CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THE USA/UKRAINE AND RUSSIA
- BREAKING: TRUMP’S RHETORICAL SHIFT: In a notable change in stance during his speech in the UN, U.S. President Trump stated that Ukraine can reclaim all territory lost to Russia, with NATO/EU support. He warned Russia of consequences and urged Europe to cut Russian energy imports.
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 19): E.U. HAS PROPOSED THE 19TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. The sanction, among other, will be targeting some of the biggest Russian oil companies and more than 100 oil shadow fleet vessels. The EU countries are expected to vote on the proposal in the next few days.
- BREAKING: GROUP-7 (Japan, France, UK, Italy, Canada, Germany and oftentimes EU) TO PROPOSE SANCTIONS TARGETING RUSSIA OIL AND OTHER EXPORTS BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2025. G-7 has been urged by the USA to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the two largest Russian oil purchasers, China and India. China and India together take in more than 80% of total Russian oil exports.
RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH
- BREAKING: NEW UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON A RUSSIAN REFINERY. Ukrainian drones struck the Gazprom-controlled Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan for the second time in under a week. The attack is part of Kyiv’s intensifying campaign to cripple Russia’s refining capacity and disrupt its export potential. Analysts estimate Russia has lost over 1 million barrels/day of refining throughput due to such attacks.
TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP AND CHINA PRESIDENT XI HAD AGREED TO MEET AT APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) SUMMIT IN SOUTH KOREA (OCTOBER 31- NOVEMBER 1): The two presidents held a phone call on September 19, described as positive and constructive, and agreed to meet in person at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. Progress in trade talks between the two countries could further improve the future oil demand outlook and therefore, positive reaction by the oil prices could be expected.
EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES CONFIRM UPTREND: The 20-day moving average (red) has turned higher, signaling short-term bullish momentum, while the 50-day moving average (blue) is flattening after a downward slope. With price trading back above both averages, the technical setup suggests improving upside potential.
GRAPH (Daily): May 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, September 25, 2025.
Current Price: 64.30
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
70.00 |
|
68.00 |
|
66.00 |
|
62.70 |
|
62.00 |
|
61.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Crude Oil |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
5,700 |
3,700 |
1,700 |
-1,600 |
-2,300 |
-2,800 |
Profit or loss in €² |
4,853 |
3,150 |
1,447 |
-1,362 |
-1,958 |
-2,384 |
Profit or loss in £² |
4,237 |
2,750 |
1,264 |
-1,189 |
-1,710 |
-2,081 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,918 |
5,140 |
2,361 |
-2,223 |
-3,195 |
-3,889 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:55 (GMT+1) 25/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.