CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THE USA/UKRAINE, AND RUSSIA
- BREAKING: TRUMP’S RHETORICAL SHIFT: In a notable change in stance during his speech at the UN, U.S. President Trump stated that Ukraine can reclaim all territory lost to Russia, with NATO/EU support. He warned Russia of consequences and urged Europe to cut Russian energy imports.
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 19): E.U. HAS PROPOSED THE 19TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. The sanction, among others, will target some of the biggest Russian oil companies and more than 100 oil shadow fleet vessels. The EU countries are expected to vote on the proposal in the next few days.
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 26): RUSSIA’S BAN ON PETROL EXPORTS AND PARTIAL BAN ON DIESEL EXPORTS IS EXTENDED UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR. This move comes as an attempt to stabilize the domestic market amid severe fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. As a result, supply has been disrupted, and several regions, including Moscow and Saint Petersburg, have imposed sales restrictions.
RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.
TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS
- US PRESIDENT TRUMP AND CHINA PRESIDENT XI HAD AGREED TO MEET AT APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) SUMMIT IN SOUTH KOREA (OCTOBER 31- NOVEMBER 1): The two presidents held a phone call on September 19, described as positive and constructive, and agreed to meet in person at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. Progress in trade talks between the two countries could further improve the future oil demand outlook and, therefore, a positive reaction in oil prices could be expected.
EVENTS (ECONOMIC CALENDAR):
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 21:30 GMT+1: AMERICAN PETROL INSTITUTE (API) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 15:30 GMT+1: ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (EIA) OIL INVENTORY DATA (USA). If data showed a declining inventory for the past week, then positive support for the oil price could be expected. However, the price could decline.
- SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5 AT 11:30 GMT+1: THE ORGANIZATION OF THE PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES AND THEIR ALLIES (OPEC+) MEETING. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly online meetings to review market conditions and decide on November production quotas.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- DAILY MOVING AVERAGES CONFIRM UPTREND: The crude oil price traded above the 20-day moving average (red) and the 50-day moving average (blue), signaling short-term positive momentum.
- UPTREND STRUCTURE: An ascending trendline (orange line) connects higher lows since May, signaling an uptrend. As long as the price holds above this rising line, the market retains a positive momentum. However, if prices fall below the uptrend orange line, a negative trend could then develop.
GRAPH (Daily): May 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
Crude Oil, September 29, 2025.
Current Price: 64.80
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
70.00 |
|
68.50 |
|
67.00 |
|
63.00 |
|
62.00 |
|
61.50 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
Crude Oil |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
5,200 |
3,700 |
2,200 |
-1,800 |
-2,800 |
-3,300 |
Profit or loss in €² |
4,436 |
3,156 |
1,877 |
-1,535 |
-2,388 |
-2,815 |
Profit or loss in £² |
3,868 |
2,753 |
1,637 |
-1,339 |
-2,083 |
-2,455 |
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,237 |
5,150 |
3,062 |
-2,505 |
-3,897 |
-4,593 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:00 (GMT+1) 29/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.