CRUDE OIL Weekly Special Report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AREA: $61.5 - $60. Since early August, crude oil has repeatedly tested the $61.50-or-near level, with the latest move marking the fifth rejection at this zone. Oil has previously maintained a long-term support at $60, which has been in place since early 2021. The chart below shows that since early August, after testing the area near $61.50, oil prices have then recovered towards the region between $64 and $65.
GRAPH (Daily): June 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
OPEC+:
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 at 13:00 GMT+1: OPEC+ JOINT MINISTERIAL MONITORING COMMITTEE (JMMC) MEETING. According to Reuters, this committee regularly reviews global oil market conditions, monitors production levels, and ensures conformity with agreed-upon production levels under the Declaration of Cooperation.
- SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5 AT 11:30 GMT+1: EIGHT OPEC+ MEMBERS (V8) MEETING (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman). OPEC+ has agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a seventh consecutive month, raising output in October by 137,000 barrels a day. Before, the group decided to increase output by 138,000 barrels per day in April, 411, 000 barrels per day in May, 411,000 barrels per day in June, 411,000 barrels per day in July, 548,000 barrels a day in August and 548,000 in September.
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE CONFLICT
- US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP DISAPPOINTED IN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN, CONSIDERING SELLING LONG-RANGE WEAPONS TO EUROPE/NATO, POSSIBLY ESCALATING TENSIONS IN UKRAINE. According to Reuters, US President Trump has used every occasion recently to say he is disappointed in Russian President Putin, as no peace deal with Ukraine has been reached. Changing rhetoric on Russia, US President Trump is now considering selling long-range weapons to Europe/Ukraine, which could lead to a new episode of escalation.
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 19): E.U. HAS PROPOSED THE 19TH PACKAGE OF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA. The sanction, among others, will target some of the biggest Russian oil companies and more than 100 oil shadow fleet vessels. The EU countries are expected to vote on the proposal in the next few days.
- BREAKING: GROUP-7 (Japan, France, UK, Italy, Canada, Germany, and oftentimes EU) TO PROPOSE SANCTIONS TARGETING RUSSIA'S OIL AND OTHER EXPORTS. G-7 has been urged by the USA to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the two largest Russian oil purchasers, China and India. China and India together take in more than 80% of total Russian oil exports.
RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION: Russia produces around 9% of total oil production in the world, or nearly 10 million barrels a day.
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS: Russia’s oil exports are around 5 million barrels a day, representing around 5% of total global consumption.
Crude Oil, September 30, 2025.
Current Price: 62.40
|
Crude Oil |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
70.00 |
|
|
67.00 |
|
|
65.00 |
|
|
61.00 |
|
|
60.50 |
|
|
60.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Crude Oil |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
7,600 |
4,600 |
2,600 |
-1,400 |
-1,900 |
-2,400 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
6,487 |
3,926 |
2,219 |
-1,195 |
-1,622 |
-2,048 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
5,660 |
3,426 |
1,936 |
-1,043 |
-1,415 |
-1,788 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
10,580 |
6,403 |
3,619 |
-1,949 |
-2,645 |
-3,341 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 1000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:30 (GMT+1) 30/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop techniques could protect the profit.