EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 AT 10:00 GMT+1: EU INFLATION IN AUGUST (CPI). Annual inflation rate in the eurozone was 2.0% in July 2025, stable compared with June. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6 %. For August no change is expected. Higher than expected results may have a negative impact on European currency.
- FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (AUGUST). The US labor market data remains one of the most important indicators, used by the US Fed, that could potentially predict if and when there could be new interest rate cuts. The US unemployment rate remained above 4%, last coming in at 4.2% for July.
CENTRAL BANKS: US FEDERAL RESERVE
- WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17 AT 19:00 GMT+1: US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. After some weaker-than-expected employment market data in July and downward revisions to June figures and Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, markets have increased their expectations for an interest rate cut in September, expected to be followed by another in December. The benchmark interest rate currently stands at 4.5%, and according to market expectations, it is expected to decline to 4% by the end of 2025. This could put negative pressure on the US dollar and, in turn, support the EUR/USD price.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- LONGER-TERM UPTREND CHANNEL: EUR/USD continues to trade within the longer-term upward channel since early 2025. While consolidation is evident, the broader trend remains positive as long as price holds above the lower boundary.
- 100-DAY MA: The pair remains supported above its 100-Day Moving Average (green line). This level has acted as dynamic support during corrective pullbacks, underscoring that the broader trend bias is still positive. A sustained break below the 100-Day MA would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest a potential trend reversal.
- 20-DAY MA: The 20-Day Moving Average (red line) is currently flattening and running almost parallel to price, indicating reduced short-term momentum and consolidation. However, the fact that price is holding above both the 20-Day and 100-Day MAs reinforces that underlying sentiment remains constructive. A breakout above recent consolidation could trigger renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold above the 20-Day MA could open the way for a retest of the 100-Day MA.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan forecasts 1.20 by the end of 2025 and 1.22 in early 2026.
GRAPH (Daily ): November 2024– September2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, September 1, 2025.
Current Price: 1.17200
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2300 |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1850 |
|
|
1.1620 |
|
|
1.1560 |
|
|
1.1540 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
5,800 |
2,800 |
1,300 |
-1,000 |
-1,600 |
-1,800 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,949 |
2,389 |
1,109 |
-853 |
-1,365 |
-1,536 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
4,287 |
2,070 |
961 |
-739 |
-1,183 |
-1,330 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,529 |
3,635 |
1,688 |
-1,298 |
-2,077 |
-2,337 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:15 (GMT+1) 01/09/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit