EUR/USD Weekly Special Report Based on 1 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 13 AT 13:30 GMT: US INFLATION (CPI) DATA (DECEMBER). US Inflation came in at 2.7% in November, below the previous 3%. This is its lowest reading since July 2025. Core Inflation also fell in November, coming in at 2.6% (vs. 3% expected and the previous 3%). It is its lowest reading since March 2021. Another soft CPI print would reinforce pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting further the EUR/USD price.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 14 AT 13:30 GMT: US RETAIL SALES (NOVEMBER). Because the US is a consumption-driven economy, this data is very important since it signals the overall health of the economy. If the data comes out low, it could point to more interest rate cuts by the FED, weighing on the dollar and adding upward pressure to the EUR/USD. The results for the previous month stand at 3.47%, which is lower than the month before (4.18%).
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- NEXT MEETING: JANUARY 28 AT 19:00 GMT. The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in the January meeting.
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 10): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 3.75% FROM 4.00%. The Fed cut rates again in December after the one earlier in October. In total, last year, rates have fallen from 4.50% to the current 3.75%.
- FED CHAIR JEROME POWEL’S TERM ENDS IN MAY 2026, AND THE US PRESIDENT WILL MOST LIKELY NAME A NEW SUCCESSOR IN EARLY 2026. The US administration has already announced the 5 candidates that could replace Mr. Powel. All of the candidates support a policy of low interest rates, creating the conditions that the interest rate cut cycle will continue in 2026, potentially further pushing the US dollar downward.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK:
- BREAKING (THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18) EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2.15% in December and gave no indication that it will cut rates in the near future. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for February 5, 2026, at 13:15 GMT. The ECB’s stance of not cutting rates anytime soon could provide further support to EUR/USD.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- SUPPORT AREA: 1.1500 – 1.1600. The area between 1.1500 and 1.1600 has acted as strong support since mid-2025 and has remained relevant at the start of 2026. As long as EUR/USD trades above this area, positive market sentiment could be expected.
- ANALYST OPINION: JP Morgan projects EUR/USD at 1.22 in early 2026; UBS expects the pair to rise toward 1.26 in 2026; Bank of America forecasts 1.25 during 2026; Morgan Stanley targets 1.26 by June 2026.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025– January 2026
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EURUSD, January 13, 2026
Current Price: 1.1670
|
EUR/USD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.2200 |
|
|
1.2000 |
|
|
1.1800 |
|
|
1.1550 |
|
|
1.1525 |
|
|
1.1500 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
EUR/USD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
5,300 |
3,300 |
1,300 |
-1,200 |
-1,450 |
-1,700 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
4,544 |
2,829 |
1,115 |
-1,029 |
-1,243 |
-1,457 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
3,935 |
2,450 |
965 |
-891 |
-1,076 |
-1,262 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
7,356 |
4,580 |
1,804 |
-1,666 |
-2,012 |
-2,359 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 13/01/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than the suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit