GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS RISE AS LATEST ROUND OF TALKS GETS POSTPONED. Oman, which has mediated the latest rounds of nuclear talks between Iran and the USA, said there will be delays in talks.
- U.S.A. WITHDRAWAL FROM UKRAINE - RUSSIA PEACE NEGOTIATIONS: President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- US FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December. The bank could cut rates two more times in 2025 to slash its benchmark rate to 3.9% by the end of 2025. The bank expects that rates could fall to 3.40% in 2026 and further down to 3.10% in 2027.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: Wednesday, May 7, AT 19:00 GMT+1. The decision will be followed by a press conference at 19:30 GMT+1. Markets have recently raised their expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2025, which could eventually bring rates down to 3.75% from the current 4.5% (Source: CMEGROUP.COM).
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, MAY 8, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A higher-than-expected rating could be positive for gold, because it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. This data measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The previous number stands at 241,000, which is higher than the previous report, which stands at 223,000.
- TUESDAY, MAY 13, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US CONSUMER PRICE DATA (CPI) (APRIL): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for gold, as it will motivate the FED to cut interest rates more aggressively. The CPI Index measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer.
- THURSDAY, MAY 15, AT 13:30 GMT+1: US RETAIL SALES (APRIL): A lower-than-expected reading could be positive for the gold price because it could point to more future rate cuts by the FED. Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
ANALYSTS’ OPINION:
- J.P. MORGAN HAS A PRICE TARGET OF $3,675 (2025). Prices in 2026, by Q2, could rise to $4000, however, it could move in the opposite direction.
- GOLDMAN SACHS RAISED THE GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,700, FROM $3,300, WITH A TARGET RANGE OF $3,650 AND $3,950. UNDER EXTREME SCENARIOS, GOLD COULD RISE TO $4,500 BY THE END OF 2025. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
- UBS RAISED GOLD PRICE TARGET TO $3,500 FROM $3,200. However, it could also move in the opposite direction.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
GOLD, May 6, 2025
Current Price: 3,380
|
GOLD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
3,950 |
|
|
3,700 |
|
|
3,500 |
|
|
3,290 |
|
|
3,270 |
|
|
3,250 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
GOLD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
57,000 |
32,000 |
12,000 |
-9,000 |
-11,000 |
-13,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
50,328 |
28,254 |
10,595 |
-7,947 |
-9,712 |
-11,478 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
42,692 |
23,968 |
8,988 |
-6,741 |
-8,239 |
-9,737 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
78,748 |
44,210 |
16,579 |
-12,434 |
-15,197 |
-17,960 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 06/05/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.