GOLD weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: RUSSIA – UKRAINE CONFLICT
- US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP DISAPPOINTED IN RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN, CONSIDERING SELLING LONG-RANGE TO EUROPE/NATO, POSSIBLY ESCALATING TENSIONS IN UKRAINE. According to Reuters, US President Trump has used every occasion recently to say he is disappointed in Russian President Putin, as no peace deal with Ukraine has been reached. Changing rhetoric on Russia, US President Trump is now considering selling long-range weapons to Europe/Ukraine, which could lead to a new episode of escalation.
USA: WILL THERE BE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN?
- EVENT (TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30): US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DEADLINE EXPIRES AS US PRESIDENT TRUMP HEADS TO MEET TOP DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN LEADERS ON MONDAY (SEPTEMBER 29). According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with the top Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress on Monday to discuss government funding ahead of a September 30 deadline to keep the government open. Without passage of funding legislation, parts of the government would close on Wednesday (October 1).
EVENTS:
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 13:15 GMT+1: US ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (SEPTEMBER). Data in August came in at 53,000, below the forecasted 73,000. Moreover, that was a decline from July’s 106,000. If data for September show another weak figure, it could then accelerate the rate cut cycle by the Fed.
- WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 15:00 GMT+1: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (SEPTEMBER). Investors will be willing to see which way the manufacturing activity is going in the USA as the Fed cut rates in September. Data for August came in at 49.1, and levels below that in September could accelerate the rate cut cycle by the Fed.
- FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER). The US labor market data remains one of the most important indicators used by the US Fed, which could potentially signal when new interest rate cuts could be implemented. The unemployment rate held above 4% in August, at 4.3%. Another weak reading could increase pressure on the U.S. dollar, supporting gold prices.
US FEDERAL RESERVE:
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 17): US FEDERAL RESERVE CUT INTEREST RATE TO 4.25% FROM 4.50%, ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE DECEMBER 2024. The Federal Reserve policymakers said they expect to see 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025, to slash current rates to 3.75%.
- NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING AND INTEREST RATE DECISION: October 29. Interest rates are expected to be further cut to 4.00%.
- DECEMBER 10: The US Federal Reserve is expected to finish the year 2025 by cutting the rates to 3.75% on December 10.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- SUPPORT: $3,750 - $3,700. After hitting fresh all-time highs ($3,819.62), gold prices have recently traded above the level of $3,750, which has now become its next psychological support down to $3,700.
- UPTREND SINCE JANUARY 2025: Gold prices have been trading in an uptrend, as depicted by the daily chart below and the solid black uptrend line on the same chart. Since the beginning of January 2025, Gold prices have risen by around 45%. However, a shift in direction remains possible.
- ANALYSTS’ OPINION: Deutsche Bank forecasts $4,000; Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,000, but under certain circumstances, Goldman Sachs forecasts $5,000; Bank of America forecasts $4,000; J.P. Morgan forecasts $4,000; UBS forecasts $3,900.
GRAPH (Daily): January 2025 – September 2025
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
GOLD, September 29, 2025.
Current Price: 3,810
GOLD |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
4,200 |
|
4,000 |
|
3,900 |
|
3,750 |
|
3,725 |
|
3,700 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
GOLD |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
39,000 |
19,000 |
9,000 |
-6,000 |
-8,500 |
-11,000 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
33,268 |
16,208 |
7,677 |
-5,118 |
-7,251 |
-9,383 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
29,013 |
14,135 |
6,695 |
-4,464 |
-6,323 |
-8,183 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
54,280 |
26,444 |
12,526 |
-8,351 |
-11,830 |
-15,310 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT+1) 29/9/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.