Palladium weekly special report based On 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
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Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emission, while tightening regulation is forcing auto makers to put more of Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
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MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
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MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
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PALLADIUM MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE IN DEFICIT IN 2023: Russia’s Nornickel, the world’s largest Palladium producer forecast a 200,000-ounce deficit of Palladium in 2023.
CHINA:
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NEW STIMULUS PACKAGES ON THE WAY FOR Q3 AND Q4 OF 2023: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it lowered the rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 15 basis points to 2.50% from 2.65% previously. The central bank also injected 204 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos while cutting borrowing costs by 10 basis points to 1.80% from 1.90% previously.
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IMF UPGRADED ITS GROWTH FORECAST FOR CHINA FROM 5% TO 5.4% IN 2023 (November 7). The IMF's decision to upgrade China's growth prospects for 2023 and 2024 is influenced by recent policy actions taken by China.
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CHINA CAR SALES EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2023: Chinese car sales are forecast to increase by 3% in 2023 from 2022, hitting 27.6 million units. Sales only increased 2.1% in 2022 from 2021, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
PRICE ACTION:
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PALLADIUM TRADES 70% BELOW ITS ALL- TIME HIGH OF $3409 NEAR THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE SEPTEMBER 2018. Palladium currently trades around $1012, and if a full recovery followed to its recent all-time high, this could be an upside of around 237%. However, it could also decline further.
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ANALYST OPINION: Commerzbank expects a price of $1,600 in 2023. Morgan Stanley estimates $1,400, while JPMorgan forecasts 1,550.
Source: Bloomberg
PALLADIUM, November 8, 2023
Current Price: 1,012.00
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1,380.00 |
|
|
1,250.00 |
|
|
1,110.00 |
|
|
915.00 |
|
|
850.00 |
|
|
800.00 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
36,800.00 |
23,800.00 |
9,800.00 |
-9,700.00 |
-16,200.00 |
-21,200.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
34,508.14 |
22,317.77 |
9,189.67 |
-9,095.90 |
-15,191.08 |
-19,879.69 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
30,037.51 |
19,426.43 |
7,999.12 |
-7,917.49 |
-13,223.03 |
-17,304.22 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
50,746.10 |
32,819.49 |
13,513.91 |
-13,376.01 |
-22,339.31 |
-29,234.16 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT+1) 08/11/2023
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager regarding their use.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account ManagerClient Manager for more details.