PALLADIUM

Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

• UPTREND SINCE APRIL 2025: As shown in the daily chart below, palladium has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising diagonal trend line (orange) since April 2025. However, the price could decline.
• PALLADIUM PRICE ABOVE 20-,50-, AND 100-DAILY MOVING AVERAGES: Palladium price has remained above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, indicating a potential uptrend. The trend could reverse if Palladium price goes below these averages.
• PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (March 2022): Palladium price has traded around $1300, and if a full recovery takes place, the price of palladium could see an upside of around 162%. Although the price could decline as well.

GRAPH (Daily): March 2025 – September 2025

Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results

PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:

• Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions, while tightening regulations are forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
• MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer, holding 43% of the market, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the market. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
• MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.

TRADE: OPTIMISM PREVAILS

• US PRESIDENT TRUMP AND CHINA PRESIDENT XI HAD AGREED TO MEET AT APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) SUMMIT IN SOUTH KOREA (OCTOBER 31- NOVEMBER 1): The two presidents held a phone call on September 19, described as positive and constructive, and agreed to meet in person at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. Progress in trade talks between the two countries could further improve the future palladium demand outlook, and therefore, a positive reaction by the palladium prices could be expected.

EVENTS:

• TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 AT 02:30 GMT+1: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (SEPTEMBER). A stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI would support higher palladium prices, as expanding Chinese manufacturing signals healthier industrial demand.
• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 13:15 GMT+1: US ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (SEPTEMBER). Data in August came in at 53,000, below the forecasted 73,000. Moreover, that was a decline from July’s 106,000. If data for September show another weak figure, it could then accelerate the rate cut cycle by the Fed.
• WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1 AT 15:00 GMT+1: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (SEPTEMBER). Investors will be willing to see which way the manufacturing activity is going in the USA as the Fed cut rates in September. Data for August came in at 49.1, and levels below that in September could accelerate the rate cut cycle by the Fed.
• FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3 AT 13:30 GMT+1: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEPTEMBER). A weaker-than-expected payroll report and a rising unemployment rate would highlight a softening U.S. labor market, increasing expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. For palladium, lower interest rates could support industrial activity and automotive production, boosting demand for the metal used in catalytic converters.

Palladium, September 29, 2025.
Current Price: 1,300

Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot¹

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 11:00 (GMT+1) 29/09/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.