USD/CAD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
- EVENT (THURSDAY, JUNE 27 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US GDP (Q1) (third and last reading). The US economy grew by 1.3% in Q1 of 2024, the second reading showed last month, down from 3.4% in Q4 of 2023. If the third reading shows even lower reading than 1.3%, then the US dollar might come under negative pressure.
- EVENT (FRIDAY, JUNE 28 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (PCE) (MAY). The PCE data is the US Fed preferred inflation data, when it comes to interest rate decision making. If this data shows a further decline for May, then the US dollar might come under negative pressure.
- EVENT (FRIDAY, JULY 5 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US NONFARM PAYROLLS (NFP) AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JUNE). The most recent data in the US showed that the unemployment has risen to 4% from previous 3.4% over the past few months. This trend could encourage the US Fed to start soon cutting their rates in order to stimulate the economy and reduce unemployment. This in turn tends to be negative for the US Dollar.
- EVENT (FRIDAY, JULY 5 AT 13:30 GMT+1): CANADA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JUNE). The Canadian labor market has been also weakening lately, but the Bank of Canada has already reacted by cutting its benchmark interst rates from 5.00% to 4.75% in June. This action does not leave much of room for the Bank of Canada to act again soon, which could be supportive of the Canadian dollar.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE USD/CAD IS TRADING NEAR THE TOP OF ITS SIDEWAYS CHANNEL (BETWEEN 1.3200 AND 1.3850). The chanel has been in place since mid- 2022, whereby the USD/CAD has tested the upper boundary of 1.38500 four times. On the downside, the USD/CAD has tested the lower boundery three times over the same period. The USD/CAD could be expected to soon undergo a downward correction after recently testing its upper boundary of 1.38500.
GRAPH: Weekly (July 2022 – June 2024)
USD/CAD, June 25, 2024
Current Price: 1.3680
USD/CAD |
Weekly |
Trend direction |
|
1.3900 |
|
1.3850 |
|
1.3800 |
|
1.3550 |
|
1.3400 |
|
1.3200 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1 Lot1
USD/CAD |
||||||
Pivot Points |
||||||
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,612 |
-1,246 |
-879 |
953 |
2,052 |
3,518 |
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,502 |
-1,161 |
-819 |
888 |
1,912 |
3,278 |
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,270 |
-981 |
-693 |
750 |
1,616 |
2,770 |
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,200 |
-1,700 |
-1,200 |
1,300 |
2,800 |
4,800 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:00 (GMT+1) 25/06/2024
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